# Brazil regains luster as recession risk, trade war spur global reallocation

> Brazil's Ibovespa gained 8.29% in the first quarter of 2025, while the Nasdaq fell 10.42%, as investors reallocated capital from the US to Europe, China and emerging markets. Fears of a US recession grew after weak consumer confidence and rising inflation expectations.

- Date: 2025-04-01 · published 2025-04-01T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: macro · region Brazil · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/6030-brazil-regains-luster-as-recession-risk-trade-war-spur-global-reallocation
- Commodities: [Brazilian Real (BRL per USD)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/USDBRL.md)

## Why it matters

Capital flowing into Brazil and a weaker dollar support the real and make it easier for Brazilian borrowers to finance operations. A stronger real lowers USD/BRL, which can dampen the competitiveness of Brazilian commodity exports.

## Read by commodity

- USDBRL: bearish ▼

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| USDBRL | 2022-02-01 | [Brazil Real Gains as Lula Woos Centrist to Join Ticket](https://feedsoft.ai/events/43353-brazil-real-gains-as-lula-woos-centrist-to-join-ticket.md) | +0.1% | -2.5% |
| USDBRL | 2021-10-27 | [Brazil's real gains as bets rise for large rate hike - Markets - Business Recorder](https://feedsoft.ai/events/44785-brazil-s-real-gains-as-bets-rise-for-large-rate-hike-markets-business-recorder.md) | +1.7% | +0.2% |
| USDBRL | 2026-04-13 | [What explains the recent appreciation of the Brazilian real?](https://feedsoft.ai/events/19933-what-explains-the-recent-appreciation-of-the-brazilian-real.md) | -0.9% | -2.5% |
| USDBRL | 2026-04-25 | [Goldman Cuts USD/BRL Outlook as Real Gains on Trade, Carry and Risk Appetite](https://feedsoft.ai/events/19931-goldman-cuts-usd-brl-outlook-as-real-gains-on-trade-carry-and-risk-appetite.md) | -0.9% | +0.5% |
| USDBRL | 2022-07-07 | [Brazil real to firm, but pre-election fiscal loosening seen as risk - Reuters poll](https://feedsoft.ai/events/40694-brazil-real-to-firm-but-pre-election-fiscal-loosening-seen-as-risk-reuters-poll.md) | -1.5% | -3.4% |

## Sources

- valorinternational.globo.com: https://valorinternational.globo.com/markets/news/2025/04/01/brazil-regains-luster-as-recession-risk-trade-war-spur-global-reallocation.ghtml

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.