# Uncertainty Still Plagues IMO Outlook | Energy Intelligence

> Energy Intelligence reports that analysts expect IMO 2020 to create a major compliant-fuel supply gap and raise diesel's premium to crude, while refiners and traders see enough flexibility to limit distortions. Diesel futures for January 2020 are little changed from current levels, and the HSFO-diesel spread is widening but within historical norms.

- Date: 2019-03-20 · published 2019-03-20T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: macro · region Global · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/60277-uncertainty-still-plagues-imo-outlook-energy-intelligence
- Commodities: [ULSD / Diesel](https://feedsoft.ai/c/DIESEL.md), [Crude Oil (Brent)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/BRENT.md)

## Why it matters

Market views are split on whether IMO 2020 will lift diesel relative to crude, which determines future diesel and freight cost exposure. Current futures pricing suggests the market has not yet priced in a major shock.

## Read by commodity

- BRENT: neutral
- DIESEL: neutral

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| DIESEL | 2020-09-17 | [Secondary Market Demand Crucial to Diesel Recovery \| Energy Intelligence](https://feedsoft.ai/events/51275-secondary-market-demand-crucial-to-diesel-recovery-energy-intelligence.md) | -0.9% | +7.3% |
| DIESEL | 2020-11-18 | [RFP season arrives amid uncertainty](https://feedsoft.ai/events/6811-rfp-season-arrives-amid-uncertainty.md) | +10.2% | +19.3% |
| DIESEL | 2023-02-24 | [Week in Review – February 24, 2023 - Mansfield Energy](https://feedsoft.ai/events/37502-week-in-review-february-24-2023-mansfield-energy.md) | +6.1% | -1.0% |
| DIESEL | 2020-01-30 | [Marathon CEO predicts ‘stair-step’ of diesel margins in response to IMO 2020 - FreightWaves](https://feedsoft.ai/events/55258-marathon-ceo-predicts-stair-step-of-diesel-margins-in-response-to-imo-2020.md) | -2.6% | -12.2% |
| DIESEL | 2021-06-17 | [Weekly Energy Market Situation, June 14, 2021 - Fuels Market News](https://feedsoft.ai/events/46792-weekly-energy-market-situation-june-14-2021-fuels-market-news.md) | +2.8% | +0.4% |
| BRENT | 2019-03-18 | [The outlook of one energy economist for IMO2020: chaos in the diesel market - FreightWaves](https://feedsoft.ai/events/60275-the-outlook-of-one-energy-economist-for-imo2020-chaos-in-the-diesel-market.md) | +0.0% | +7.4% |
| BRENT | 2024-01-04 | [Oil prices remain volatile amid uncertainty arising from geopolitical conflict](https://feedsoft.ai/events/32316-oil-prices-remain-volatile-amid-uncertainty-arising-from-geopolitical-conflict.md) | -0.1% | +6.0% |
| BRENT | 2022-06-08 | [Q&A \| Implications of the OPEC+ Announcement to Increase Oil Production - Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University SIPA \| CGEP](https://feedsoft.ai/events/40837-q-and-a-implications-of-the-opec-announcement-to-increase-oil-production-center.md) | +0.3% | -13.8% |

## Sources

- energyintel.com: https://www.energyintel.com/0000017b-a7d7-de4c-a17b-e7d74e870000

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.