# As trade war wears on, U.S. soybean farmers start to worry that China's demand won't return

> US soybean farmers worry that prolonged trade war with China will lead Chinese buyers to permanently substitute canola meal and sunflower meal for soybeans. China's 2018 soybean imports fell 8% from 2017, and US stocks remain large even if tariffs end.

- Date: 2019-03-02 · published 2019-03-02T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: trade · region China · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/60197-as-trade-war-wears-on-u-s-soybean-farmers-start-to-worry-that-china-s-demand
- Commodities: [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md), [Soybean Meal](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SBM.md), [Canola Meal](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CANMEAL.md), [Sunflower Meal](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SUNMEAL.md)

## Why it matters

Structural substitution into rapeseed and sunflower meal in China is bearish for US soybean and soymeal demand over the longer term.

## Read by commodity

- SBM: bearish ▼
- SOY: bearish ▼
- CANMEAL: bullish ▲
- SUNMEAL: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| SOY | 2018-11-12 | [U.S. soybean farmers hang on for dear life in Trump's China trade war](https://feedsoft.ai/events/62097-u-s-soybean-farmers-hang-on-for-dear-life-in-trump-s-china-trade-war.md) | +1.9% | +4.5% |
| SOY | 2020-01-09 | [New Data: U.S. Soybean Farmers Lost 2nd Year To China Trade War](https://feedsoft.ai/events/55115-new-data-u-s-soybean-farmers-lost-2nd-year-to-china-trade-war.md) | -1.0% | -6.1% |
| SOY | 2018-10-12 | [Trade War Drives Farmers to Corn as China Shuns US Soybeans - TT](https://feedsoft.ai/events/8558-trade-war-drives-farmers-to-corn-as-china-shuns-us-soybeans-tt.md) | +0.6% | +1.1% |
| SOY | 2018-11-02 | [As China soy demand wavers, U.S. farmers turn back to grains](https://feedsoft.ai/events/62089-as-china-soy-demand-wavers-u-s-farmers-turn-back-to-grains.md) | -0.2% | +3.0% |
| SOY | 2019-08-08 | [US-China trade war: Soybean farmers are working new markets](https://feedsoft.ai/events/57614-us-china-trade-war-soybean-farmers-are-working-new-markets.md) | +1.4% | +0.1% |
| SBM | 2018-10-12 | [Trade War Drives Farmers to Corn as China Shuns US Soybeans - TT](https://feedsoft.ai/events/8558-trade-war-drives-farmers-to-corn-as-china-shuns-us-soybeans-tt.md) | +1.1% | -2.1% |
| SBM | 2019-08-08 | [US-China trade war: Soybean farmers are working new markets](https://feedsoft.ai/events/57614-us-china-trade-war-soybean-farmers-are-working-new-markets.md) | 0.0% | -1.5% |
| SBM | 2018-08-01 | [Why Soybeans Are at the Heart of the U.S.-China Trade War](https://feedsoft.ai/events/64080-why-soybeans-are-at-the-heart-of-the-u-s-china-trade-war.md) | -2.5% | -11.9% |

## Sources

- m.startribune.com: https://m.startribune.com/as-trade-war-wears-on-u-s-soybean-farmers-start-to-worry-that-china-s-demand-won-t-return/506564292/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.