# Dramatic rainfall changes for key crops expected even with reduced greenhouse gas emissions

> A CGIAR and CIAT study projects that by 2040 rainfall patterns for wheat, soybean, rice and maize will shift even if Paris Agreement emissions targets are met. Parts of Europe, Africa, the Americas and Australia are expected to become drier, while the tropics and northern regions get wetter.

- Date: 2019-03-11 · published 2019-03-11T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: report · region Global · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/60014-dramatic-rainfall-changes-for-key-crops-expected-even-with-reduced-greenhouse
- Commodities: [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md), [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md), [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md), [Rough Rice](https://feedsoft.ai/c/RICE.md)

## Why it matters

Long-term drying in major exporting regions like Australia, the Americas and Europe points to structurally tighter future supplies of grains and oilseeds, a slow-moving but supportive price factor.

## Read by commodity

- SOY: bullish ▲
- CORN: bullish ▲
- RICE: bullish ▲
- WHEAT: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| WHEAT | 2021-09-10 | [COCERAL reduces crop projection for EU-27+UK  \| World Grain](https://feedsoft.ai/events/45013-coceral-reduces-crop-projection-for-eu-27-uk-world-grain.md) | +3.6% | +5.7% |
| WHEAT | 2024-05-10 | [Corn Surges on Lower-Than-Expected Stocks; Wheat, Soy Finish With Solid Gains After Mostly Neutral Report](https://feedsoft.ai/events/30213-corn-surges-on-lower-than-expected-stocks-wheat-soy-finish-with-solid-gains.md) | +1.9% | +6.1% |
| WHEAT | 2021-10-19 | [In October, the USDA reduced its grain crop and export forecasts for the Black Sea region 19.10.2021 - UkrAgroConsult](https://feedsoft.ai/events/44402-in-october-the-usda-reduced-its-grain-crop-and-export-forecasts-for-the-black.md) | +0.7% | +9.2% |
| WHEAT | 2026-04-22 | [A bit smaller EU wheat crop predicted for 2026-27 - Grainews](https://feedsoft.ai/events/19657-a-bit-smaller-eu-wheat-crop-predicted-for-2026-27-grainews.md) | +1.2% | +2.3% |
| WHEAT | 2025-06-02 | [ABARES releases initial forecasts for winter crops - Grain Central](https://feedsoft.ai/events/24166-abares-releases-initial-forecasts-for-winter-crops-grain-central.md) | +2.9% | +1.7% |
| SOY | 2023-10-12 | [WASDE Reduces Corn and Soy Production More Than Expected](https://feedsoft.ai/events/33584-wasde-reduces-corn-and-soy-production-more-than-expected.md) | +4.7% | +7.7% |
| SOY | 2022-10-12 | [October WASDE mismatched with industry expectations for corn, soybean stocks - McKeany-Flavell](https://feedsoft.ai/events/39091-october-wasde-mismatched-with-industry-expectations-for-corn-soybean-stocks.md) | -0.3% | +4.9% |
| SOY | 2025-05-12 | [USDA Reduces Old Crop Corn Ending Stocks, Pegs New Crop Lower Than Expected](https://feedsoft.ai/events/24606-usda-reduces-old-crop-corn-ending-stocks-pegs-new-crop-lower-than-expected.md) | +0.6% | +1.1% |

## Sources

- cgiar.org: https://www.cgiar.org/news-events/news/dramatic-rainfall-changes-for-key-crops-expected-even-with-reduced-greenhouse-gas-emissions

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.