# Impacts of African Swine Fever on China's Feed Industry and Soy Demand - Rabobank

> Rabobank analyst Lief Chiang expects African swine fever to depress China's feed consumption, especially hog feed, in 2019. Rabobank forecasts China's pork output could fall 25% to 35% in 2019, with soymeal usage declining only modestly due to higher inclusion rates and poultry growth.

- Date: 2019-04-24 · published 2019-04-24T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: disease · region China · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/59584-impacts-of-african-swine-fever-on-china-s-feed-industry-and-soy-demand-rabobank
- Commodities: [Soybean Meal](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SBM.md), [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md), [Lean Hogs](https://feedsoft.ai/c/HOGS.md), [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md)

## Why it matters

Lower hog feed use reduces China's soybean and soymeal import demand, which is bearish for soybeans and soybean meal prices even though the decline is partly cushioned by feed efficiency gains and poultry growth.

## Read by commodity

- SBM: bearish ▼
- SOY: bearish ▼
- CORN: bearish ▼
- HOGS: bearish ▼

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| SBM | 2018-09-11 | [African Swine Fever May Reduce China's Soybean Demand](https://feedsoft.ai/events/63016-african-swine-fever-may-reduce-china-s-soybean-demand.md) | -4.1% | -0.5% |
| SBM | 2021-03-10 | [Resurgence of African Swine Fever in China Threatens Global Grain Demand](https://feedsoft.ai/events/48100-resurgence-of-african-swine-fever-in-china-threatens-global-grain-demand.md) | -3.0% | -2.9% |
| SBM | 2019-02-28 | [China warns of “serious” impact of swine fever, cuts meal demand 5%](https://feedsoft.ai/events/60581-china-warns-of-serious-impact-of-swine-fever-cuts-meal-demand-5.md) | -1.0% | -0.2% |
| SBM | 2019-03-12 | [Swine fever hurts China soybean demand, raises doubts on trade promises](https://feedsoft.ai/events/60092-swine-fever-hurts-china-soybean-demand-raises-doubts-on-trade-promises.md) | +4.4% | +4.2% |
| SBM | 2018-11-01 | [Effects from African swine fever may  reduce China's soybean needs.](https://feedsoft.ai/events/62037-effects-from-african-swine-fever-may-reduce-china-s-soybean-needs.md) | +0.5% | +0.2% |
| SOY | 2018-09-11 | [African Swine Fever May Reduce China's Soybean Demand](https://feedsoft.ai/events/63016-african-swine-fever-may-reduce-china-s-soybean-demand.md) | -1.2% | +4.3% |
| SOY | 2021-03-10 | [Resurgence of African Swine Fever in China Threatens Global Grain Demand](https://feedsoft.ai/events/48100-resurgence-of-african-swine-fever-in-china-threatens-global-grain-demand.md) | -1.2% | -2.3% |
| SOY | 2019-02-28 | [China warns of “serious” impact of swine fever, cuts meal demand 5%](https://feedsoft.ai/events/60581-china-warns-of-serious-impact-of-swine-fever-cuts-meal-demand-5.md) | -1.5% | -1.8% |

## Sources

- rabobank.com: https://www.rabobank.com/knowledge/q011333912-impacts-of-african-swine-fever-on-china-s-feed-industry-and-soy-demand

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.