# Oil Falls 5%, ULSD Tumbles 14% on De-Risking Over Iran

> Crude oil futures fell 5% on Monday and natural gas plunged 26% as investors de-risked on reports that Iran and the U.S. were in talks to avoid war over Iran's nuclear program. Heating oil closed down 14% and gasoline 4%, while the U.S. dollar index rose to a two-week high of 97.72.

- Date: 2026-02-02 · published 2026-02-02T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: geopolitics · region Global · magnitude high
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/5923-oil-falls-5-ulsd-tumbles-14-on-de-risking-over-iran
- Commodities: [Crude Oil (WTI)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WTI.md), [Crude Oil (Brent)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/BRENT.md), [Natural Gas](https://feedsoft.ai/c/NATGAS.md), [ULSD / Diesel](https://feedsoft.ai/c/DIESEL.md), [US Dollar (Broad)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/DXY.md)

## Why it matters

Removal of the Strait of Hormuz risk premium lowers energy prices, and a firmer dollar makes dollar-priced commodities more expensive for foreign buyers. Analysts expect a 2026 crude oversupply, which points to softer energy costs for feed producers.

## Read by commodity

- DXY: bullish ▲
- WTI: bearish ▼
- BRENT: bearish ▼
- DIESEL: bearish ▼
- NATGAS: bearish ▼

## Linked price moves

| Commodity | Date | Window | Change % | z-score | Why linked |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| BRENT | 2026-02-02 | 1 | -6.3% | -3.7 | Crude dropped 5% as investors de-risked on reports of US-Iran talks to avoid war, and a stronger dollar added pressure. |
| NATGAS | 2026-02-02 | 1 | -32.5% | -3.1 | Natural gas plunged 26% on the same day as investors de-risked across energy on U.S.-Iran talks and a firmer dollar, so sentiment-driven liquidation likely contributed, though the Iran link to U.S. gas is indirect. |

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| WTI | 2026-05-24 | [Oil tumbles nearly 7% as US and Iran seen moving closer to deal \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/12722-oil-tumbles-nearly-7-as-us-and-iran-seen-moving-closer-to-deal-reuters.md) | -4.4% | -25.2% |
| WTI | 2026-02-01 | [Oil settles down over 4% on US-Iran de-escalation, easing supply worries \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/8794-oil-settles-down-over-4-on-us-iran-de-escalation-easing-supply-worries-reuters.md) | -1.6% | +9.9% |
| WTI | 2026-03-23 | [Oil, Fuel Tumble in Volatile Moves; US Cites Iran Talks](https://feedsoft.ai/events/8542-oil-fuel-tumble-in-volatile-moves-us-cites-iran-talks.md) | +2.2% | -8.1% |
| WTI | 2025-06-30 | [Oil prices fall on easing Middle East risks](https://feedsoft.ai/events/24130-oil-prices-fall-on-easing-middle-east-risks.md) | +2.0% | -0.5% |
| WTI | 2022-03-14 | [Oil falls over 5% on Russia-Ukraine talk hopes, China lockdowns \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/5997-oil-falls-over-5-on-russia-ukraine-talk-hopes-china-lockdowns-reuters.md) | -4.2% | -10.1% |
| BRENT | 2026-05-24 | [Oil tumbles nearly 7% as US and Iran seen moving closer to deal \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/12722-oil-tumbles-nearly-7-as-us-and-iran-seen-moving-closer-to-deal-reuters.md) | -8.2% | -26.6% |
| BRENT | 2026-02-01 | [Oil settles down over 4% on US-Iran de-escalation, easing supply worries \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/8794-oil-settles-down-over-4-on-us-iran-de-escalation-easing-supply-worries-reuters.md) | -3.1% | +0.6% |
| BRENT | 2026-03-23 | [Oil, Fuel Tumble in Volatile Moves; US Cites Iran Talks](https://feedsoft.ai/events/8542-oil-fuel-tumble-in-volatile-moves-us-cites-iran-talks.md) | +1.5% | -13.8% |

## Sources

- dtnpf.com: https://www.dtnpf.com/agriculture/web/ag/news/world-policy/article/2026/02/02/oil-falls-5-ulsd-tumbles-14-de-iran

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.