# ASF impacts on feed | 2019-05-31  | MEAT+POULTRY

> CoBank economists expect African Swine Fever to cause a significant drop in feed demand, weighing on US feed and grain exports. Their scenario of a one-third cut in China's hog herd in 2019-2020 implies roughly 9 million tonnes less soymeal and 28 million tonnes less corn consumption. Some offset is expected as Chinese consumers shift toward poultry and beef.

- Date: 2019-05-31 · published 2019-05-31T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: disease · region China · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/59078-asf-impacts-on-feed-2019-05-31-meat-poultry
- Commodities: [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md), [Soybean Meal](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SBM.md), [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md)

## Why it matters

A sharp fall in Chinese hog-driven feed demand removes a major source of import demand for corn and soymeal, pressuring US feed grain and soy prices. Some support may come from stronger poultry and beef feed demand.

## Read by commodity

- SBM: bearish ▼
- SOY: bearish ▼
- CORN: bearish ▼

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| CORN | 2019-05-24 | [On alert for ASF \| 2019-05-24  \| MEAT+POULTRY](https://feedsoft.ai/events/58968-on-alert-for-asf-2019-05-24-meat-poultry.md) | +7.1% | +10.0% |
| CORN | 2019-01-29 | [China pig feed numbers stay strong in 2018; ASF could impact 2019](https://feedsoft.ai/events/61086-china-pig-feed-numbers-stay-strong-in-2018-asf-could-impact-2019.md) | -0.4% | +0.0% |
| CORN | 2020-01-17 | [Meat and poultry market update regarding ASF, meat alternatives \| 2020-01-17  \| MEAT+POULTRY](https://feedsoft.ai/events/55243-meat-and-poultry-market-update-regarding-asf-meat-alternatives-2020-01-17-meat.md) | +3.4% | -0.4% |
| CORN | 2020-02-18 | [China warns of sustained virus impact on poultry, eggs supply](https://feedsoft.ai/events/54615-china-warns-of-sustained-virus-impact-on-poultry-eggs-supply.md) | -1.7% | -3.5% |
| CORN | 2023-05-28 | [New study looks at impacts of a US ASF outbreak across swine, poultry, beef, grains
						 \| The Poultry Site](https://feedsoft.ai/events/16186-new-study-looks-at-impacts-of-a-us-asf-outbreak-across-swine-poultry-beef.md) | -4.6% | -4.0% |
| SBM | 2019-05-24 | [On alert for ASF \| 2019-05-24  \| MEAT+POULTRY](https://feedsoft.ai/events/58968-on-alert-for-asf-2019-05-24-meat-poultry.md) | +8.1% | +6.2% |
| SBM | 2019-08-27 | [Rabobank: ASF impacts becoming clear \| 2019-08-27  \| MEAT+POULTRY](https://feedsoft.ai/events/57474-rabobank-asf-impacts-becoming-clear-2019-08-27-meat-poultry.md) | -1.7% | +0.8% |
| SBM | 2019-01-29 | [China pig feed numbers stay strong in 2018; ASF could impact 2019](https://feedsoft.ai/events/61086-china-pig-feed-numbers-stay-strong-in-2018-asf-could-impact-2019.md) | -0.5% | -2.9% |

## Sources

- meatpoultry.com: https://www.meatpoultry.com/articles/21395-asf-impacts-on-feed

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.