# US-China dispute and effects of ASF on feed - Food & Agribusiness

> Rabobank's China Food & Agribusiness Monthly says African Swine Fever has spread across China, depressing pig feed consumption. Rabobank's base case cuts Chinese soymeal usage by 4% and feed corn usage by 8% in 2019. State crushers have booked 13-14 million tonnes of US soybeans, with about 7 million tonnes still outstanding, and further purchases could halt if trade tensions escalate.

- Date: 2019-05-15 · published 2019-05-15T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: disease · region China · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/59077-us-china-dispute-and-effects-of-asf-on-feed-food-and-agribusiness
- Commodities: [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md), [Soybean Meal](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SBM.md), [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md)

## Why it matters

Lower feed demand in China reduces import needs for corn and soymeal, which is bearish for those markets. Trade-driven purchase halts add further downside risk to US soybean prices.

## Read by commodity

- SBM: bearish ▼
- SOY: bearish ▼
- CORN: bearish ▼

## Linked price moves

| Commodity | Date | Window | Change % | z-score | Why linked |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| SBM | 2019-05-15 | 5 | +6.3% | 3.2 | ASF-driven cuts to Chinese soymeal usage and the risk that crusher purchases halt reduce demand for US soy products. |

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| CORN | 2018-03-12 | [AI impact on the South African feed industry - Food & Agribusiness](https://feedsoft.ai/events/66001-ai-impact-on-the-south-african-feed-industry-food-and-agribusiness.md) | +1.7% | +5.0% |
| CORN | 2019-04-24 | [Impacts of African Swine Fever on China's Feed Industry and Soy Demand - Rabobank](https://feedsoft.ai/events/59584-impacts-of-african-swine-fever-on-china-s-feed-industry-and-soy-demand-rabobank.md) | -1.5% | +5.3% |
| CORN | 2019-11-15 | [ADM exec: ASF in China positively affecting margins \| Feed Strategy](https://feedsoft.ai/events/56057-adm-exec-asf-in-china-positively-affecting-margins-feed-strategy.md) | -0.7% | -2.8% |
| CORN | 2020-03-04 | [Coronavirus complicates ASF situation in China \| Feed Strategy](https://feedsoft.ai/events/54125-coronavirus-complicates-asf-situation-in-china-feed-strategy.md) | +1.1% | -0.6% |
| CORN | 2019-08-01 | [Cargill shuts China feed mills as swine fever spreads](https://feedsoft.ai/events/58089-cargill-shuts-china-feed-mills-as-swine-fever-spreads.md) | -3.0% | -7.6% |
| SBM | 2018-08-29 | [ASF outbreaks in China: Effect on feed ingredients - Food & Agribusiness](https://feedsoft.ai/events/63652-asf-outbreaks-in-china-effect-on-feed-ingredients-food-and-agribusiness.md) | +1.8% | +2.3% |
| SBM | 2018-12-05 | [More and more ASF cases in China - imports of US pork](https://feedsoft.ai/events/61547-more-and-more-asf-cases-in-china-imports-of-us-pork.md) | -0.6% | +0.8% |
| SBM | 2019-04-24 | [Impacts of African Swine Fever on China's Feed Industry and Soy Demand - Rabobank](https://feedsoft.ai/events/59584-impacts-of-african-swine-fever-on-china-s-feed-industry-and-soy-demand-rabobank.md) | -1.7% | -1.9% |

## Sources

- foodagribusiness.world: https://www.foodagribusiness.world/feed/us-china-dispute-and-effects-of-asf-on-feed

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.