# Strong chance of El Niño developing, but likely to be short-lived: BOM - Grain Central

> Australia's Bureau of Meteorology keeps its El Niño Alert with about a 70% chance of El Niño developing in 2019. Models indicate any event would be short-lived, with most returning to neutral by September. A neutral Indian Ocean Dipole is expected for now.

- Date: 2019-05-01 · published 2019-05-01T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: weather · region Australia · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/59013-strong-chance-of-el-nino-developing-but-likely-to-be-short-lived-bom-grain
- Commodities: [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md), [Barley](https://feedsoft.ai/c/BARLEY.md)

## Why it matters

A short-lived El Niño limits the drought risk for Australian wheat and barley and reduces the supply-risk premium. Buyers can expect less upside from Australian grain origins.

## Read by commodity

- WHEAT: bearish ▼
- BARLEY: bearish ▼

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| WHEAT | 2018-04-25 | [El Niño–Southern Oscillation likely to remain neutral through winter - Grain Central](https://feedsoft.ai/events/65447-el-nino-southern-oscillation-likely-to-remain-neutral-through-winter-grain.md) | +3.5% | +2.9% |
| WHEAT | 2019-05-24 | [Strong El Niño this year appears unlikely](https://feedsoft.ai/events/59007-strong-el-nino-this-year-appears-unlikely.md) | -12.2% | -6.1% |
| WHEAT | 2019-05-29 | [Southern winter crop off to a promising start - Grain Central](https://feedsoft.ai/events/59062-southern-winter-crop-off-to-a-promising-start-grain-central.md) | +9.6% | +15.3% |
| WHEAT | 2017-05-16 | [El Nino bias retreats - Grain Central](https://feedsoft.ai/events/70914-el-nino-bias-retreats-grain-central.md) | +3.2% | +1.7% |
| WHEAT | 2023-05-18 | [Wheat Tour Sees Short Crop; Black Sea Grain Deal Prevents Rally](https://feedsoft.ai/events/36016-wheat-tour-sees-short-crop-black-sea-grain-deal-prevents-rally.md) | -1.2% | -6.5% |

## Sources

- graincentral.com: https://www.graincentral.com/weather/strong-chance-of-el-nino-developing-but-likely-to-be-short-lived-bom/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.