# ENSO WILL TOE THE LINE BETWEEN EL NIÑO AND NEUTRAL CONDITIONS DURING JUNE-AUGUST

> An ENSO outlook says Niño 3.4 temperature anomalies sit on the El Niño threshold at +0.5°C as of 29 April. Forecast indicators are wavering, and ENSO-neutral is now the most likely state for June-August. Downside risk is flagged for Black Sea crops and upside potential for US crops.

- Date: 2019-05-09 · published 2019-05-09T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: weather · region Black Sea · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/59009-enso-will-toe-the-line-between-el-nino-and-neutral-conditions-during-june-august
- Commodities: [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md), [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md)

## Why it matters

Neutral conditions remove a clear El Niño drought signal, while Black Sea dryness risk remains a possible source of wheat and corn price support. Buyers should watch these indicators for changes in supply expectations.

## Read by commodity

- CORN: neutral
- WHEAT: neutral

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| WHEAT | 2018-12-03 | [Weak El Nino conditions developing in the Pacific this winter: IMD - The HinduBusinessLine](https://feedsoft.ai/events/61503-weak-el-nino-conditions-developing-in-the-pacific-this-winter-imd-the.md) | +0.9% | +1.8% |
| WHEAT | 2025-12-11 | [La Niña to fade early next year, neutral Pacific conditions likely, U.S. forecasters say - AgCanada](https://feedsoft.ai/events/21415-la-nina-to-fade-early-next-year-neutral-pacific-conditions-likely-u-s.md) | -0.3% | +0.8% |
| WHEAT | 2019-11-01 | [IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society \| October Climate Briefing: El Niño Remains Neutral](https://feedsoft.ai/events/55983-iri-international-research-institute-for-climate-and-society-october-climate.md) | -0.2% | +8.0% |
| WHEAT | 2017-06-19 | [IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society \| June Climate Briefing: El Niño Odds Continue Downward Trend](https://feedsoft.ai/events/70405-iri-international-research-institute-for-climate-and-society-june-climate.md) | -0.7% | -1.2% |
| WHEAT | 2026-01-22 | [Will El Niño be slow to develop? \| World Grain](https://feedsoft.ai/events/20953-will-el-nino-be-slow-to-develop-world-grain.md) | +3.9% | +5.2% |
| CORN | 2025-05-08 | [US CPC sees 74% chance of ENSO Neutral conditions through June-August \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/24587-us-cpc-sees-74-chance-of-enso-neutral-conditions-through-june-august-reuters.md) | -0.6% | +1.5% |
| CORN | 2025-06-12 | [US CPC sees 82% chance of ENSO neutral conditions through June-August — TradingView News](https://feedsoft.ai/events/24118-us-cpc-sees-82-chance-of-enso-neutral-conditions-through-june-august.md) | +0.0% | -4.5% |
| CORN | 2025-04-01 | [March 2025 ENSO update: neutral conditions expected soon](https://feedsoft.ai/events/25496-march-2025-enso-update-neutral-conditions-expected-soon.md) | +1.0% | +2.2% |

## Sources

- linkedin.com: https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/enso-toe-line-between-el-ni%C3%B1o-neutral-conditions-during-isaac-hankes

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.