# Strong El Niño this year appears unlikely

> The World Meteorological Organization says a strong El Niño in 2019 appears unlikely. Tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures have been at borderline to weak El Niño levels in April and early May. The chance of El Niño in June-August is estimated at 60-65%, falling to 50% from September.

- Date: 2019-05-24 · published 2019-05-24T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: weather · region Global · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/59007-strong-el-nino-this-year-appears-unlikely
- Commodities: [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md), [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md), [Palm Oil](https://feedsoft.ai/c/PALMOIL.md)

## Why it matters

A weak or short El Niño lowers the risk of severe drought in Australia, Southeast Asia and India, so it trims the supply-risk premium for grains, oilseeds and palm oil. Feed buyers should expect less weather-driven upside from this source.

## Read by commodity

- CORN: bearish ▼
- WHEAT: bearish ▼
- PALMOIL: bearish ▼

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| CORN | 2019-04-01 | [March 2019 El Niño Update: Think spring](https://feedsoft.ai/events/60008-march-2019-el-nino-update-think-spring.md) | +0.2% | -2.9% |
| CORN | 2025-12-11 | [La Niña to fade early next year, neutral Pacific conditions likely, U.S. forecasters say - AgCanada](https://feedsoft.ai/events/21415-la-nina-to-fade-early-next-year-neutral-pacific-conditions-likely-u-s.md) | +0.5% | +0.6% |
| CORN | 2026-02-18 | [Top DTN La Nina to El Nino Analog Years Show Large US Corn Production](https://feedsoft.ai/events/20519-top-dtn-la-nina-to-el-nino-analog-years-show-large-us-corn-production.md) | +0.2% | +5.7% |
| CORN | 2024-08-04 | [La Niña’s likely return will undo some of past year’s crop havoc - Moneyweb](https://feedsoft.ai/events/28675-la-nina-s-likely-return-will-undo-some-of-past-year-s-crop-havoc-moneyweb.md) | -1.7% | -1.5% |
| CORN | 2024-03-21 | [El Niño's impact on U.S. Farmers \| American Ag Network](https://feedsoft.ai/events/31128-el-nino-s-impact-on-u-s-farmers-american-ag-network.md) | -3.0% | -7.2% |
| WHEAT | 2019-05-01 | [Strong chance of El Niño developing, but likely to be short-lived: BOM - Grain Central](https://feedsoft.ai/events/59013-strong-chance-of-el-nino-developing-but-likely-to-be-short-lived-bom-grain.md) | -4.6% | -9.2% |
| WHEAT | 2023-05-30 | [The spectre of El Niño - Mecardo](https://feedsoft.ai/events/35988-the-spectre-of-el-nino-mecardo.md) | -4.0% | +9.3% |
| WHEAT | 2024-08-04 | [La Niña’s likely return will undo some of past year’s crop havoc - Moneyweb](https://feedsoft.ai/events/28675-la-nina-s-likely-return-will-undo-some-of-past-year-s-crop-havoc-moneyweb.md) | +4.7% | -2.4% |

## Sources

- wmo.int: https://wmo.int/news/media-centre/strong-el-nino-year-appears-unlikely

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.