# Why the hurdle for a major CNY devaluation remains high | Lombard Odier

> Lombard Odier argues the hurdle for a major yuan devaluation remains high because the PBOC targets the currency's value rather than inflation. A large decline would require either a market-determined outcome or deliberate intervention, and the bank sees stability as more likely.

- Date: 2019-06-04 · published 2019-06-04T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: macro · region China · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/58823-why-the-hurdle-for-a-major-cny-devaluation-remains-high-lombard-odier
- Commodities: [Chinese Yuan (CNY per USD)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/USDCNY.md), [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md)

## Why it matters

Limited odds of a large devaluation suggest Chinese import costs for US farm goods are unlikely to shift sharply, so the near-term price effect on soybeans and feed grains is modest.

## Read by commodity

- SOY: neutral
- USDCNY: neutral

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| USDCNY | 2018-04-12 | [Analysis  \| Why devaluing the yuan is a no-no for China amid US trade war fears \| South China Morning Post](https://feedsoft.ai/events/65713-analysis-why-devaluing-the-yuan-is-a-no-no-for-china-amid-us-trade-war-fears.md) | +0.1% | +1.5% |
| USDCNY | 2024-08-23 | [CNY at a glance: Is the worst of China’s depreciation pressure over? \| ING THINK](https://feedsoft.ai/events/29028-cny-at-a-glance-is-the-worst-of-china-s-depreciation-pressure-over-ing-think.md) | -0.7% | -1.3% |
| USDCNY | 2025-08-04 | [China – the CNY and deflationary equilibrium](https://feedsoft.ai/events/10147-china-the-cny-and-deflationary-equilibrium.md) | -0.4% | -1.1% |
| USDCNY | 2021-10-22 | [China's yuan eases after regulator warn of possible actions to counter higher fluctuations - Markets - Business Recorder](https://feedsoft.ai/events/44778-china-s-yuan-eases-after-regulator-warn-of-possible-actions-to-counter-higher.md) | -0.0% | -0.1% |
| USDCNY | 2023-08-18 | [Dollar set for fifth straight week of gains as China stays top of mind \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/34806-dollar-set-for-fifth-straight-week-of-gains-as-china-stays-top-of-mind-reuters.md) | -0.2% | -0.2% |
| SOY | 2022-08-02 | [Argentina’s Cash Needed to Avert Devaluation is Drying Up](https://feedsoft.ai/events/40324-argentina-s-cash-needed-to-avert-devaluation-is-drying-up.md) | +1.6% | -3.7% |
| SOY | 2018-05-15 | [Grains of recovery whet appetite for fiscal reform in Brazil](https://feedsoft.ai/events/12779-grains-of-recovery-whet-appetite-for-fiscal-reform-in-brazil.md) | +1.2% | -5.8% |
| SOY | 2018-06-04 | [Market Outlook Considerations for Week Beginning June 4, 2018](https://feedsoft.ai/events/6747-market-outlook-considerations-for-week-beginning-june-4-2018.md) | -5.1% | -15.9% |

## Sources

- lombardodier.com: https://www.lombardodier.com/contents/corporate-news/investment-insights/2019/june/why-the-hurdle-for-a-major-cny-d.html

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.