# US cheese and dairy growth, prices on a downward trend - Food & Agribusiness

> Rabobank forecasts dairy prices to keep trending downward in Q1 2023 as Chinese import demand is absent amid expected domestic destocking. Renewed Chinese buying is expected from Q2 2023, and the January WASDE cut 2023 US dairy price projections across milk classes.

- Date: 2023-02-02 · published 2023-02-02T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: trade · region Global · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/5879-us-cheese-and-dairy-growth-prices-on-a-downward-trend-food-and-agribusiness
- Commodities: [Milk (Class III)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/MILK.md)

## Why it matters

Weak Chinese import demand and lower USDA price projections reduce dairy prices and farm margins, which may limit US dairy expansion. A recovery in Chinese buying from Q2 would provide later support for global dairy markets.

## Read by commodity

- MILK: bearish ▼

## Linked price moves

| Commodity | Date | Window | Change % | z-score | Why linked |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| MILK | 2023-02-07 | 5 | -8.8% | -2.9 | Rabobank's call for weak Chinese import demand in Q1 and WASDE cuts to 2023 US dairy price forecasts weighed on demand expectations and sentiment, pressuring Class III futures. |

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| MILK | 2018-09-06 | [Global dairy prices take a hit \| 2018-09-06  \| Dairy Foods](https://feedsoft.ai/events/63186-global-dairy-prices-take-a-hit-2018-09-06-dairy-foods.md) | -2.5% | -4.5% |
| MILK | 2023-08-31 | [Exports Drive Dairy Prices Whey Up (and Down) - Farmer Mac](https://feedsoft.ai/events/34591-exports-drive-dairy-prices-whey-up-and-down-farmer-mac.md) | -1.5% | -2.6% |
| MILK | 2025-03-04 | [Dairy Markets on Edge: Tariffs and Trade Uncertainty Shake Prices - Dairy Herd](https://feedsoft.ai/events/25587-dairy-markets-on-edge-tariffs-and-trade-uncertainty-shake-prices-dairy-herd.md) | -8.9% | -7.7% |
| MILK | 2025-03-05 | [What’s in the News: Dairy Markets Weaken Amid Tariffs, Falling Prices, and Lab-Grown Milk - Dairy Herd](https://feedsoft.ai/events/4703-what-s-in-the-news-dairy-markets-weaken-amid-tariffs-falling-prices-and-lab.md) | -8.6% | -7.8% |
| MILK | 2020-08-05 | [Dairy prices plummet at GDT auction as China demand slackens](https://feedsoft.ai/events/8829-dairy-prices-plummet-at-gdt-auction-as-china-demand-slackens.md) | -21.0% | -19.2% |

## Sources

- foodagribusiness.world: https://www.foodagribusiness.world/dairy/us-cheese-and-dairy-growth-prices-on-a-downward-trend

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.