# Risk of a renminbi devaluation is real

> An op-ed argues that speculation about a large renminbi devaluation looks unlikely given China's large trade and balance-of-payments surpluses. It notes that the yen has slumped despite Japan's larger surplus, and that a policy-driven or accidental depreciation would have far-reaching consequences. The author recommends domestic consumer support instead.

- Date: 2024-05-06 · published 2024-05-06T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: macro · region China · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/5871-risk-of-a-renminbi-devaluation-is-real
- Commodities: [Chinese Yuan (CNY per USD)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/USDCNY.md)

## Why it matters

A sharp yuan depreciation would raise the local-currency cost of imported feed and could weaken Chinese feed demand, but the author views a large move as unlikely.

## Read by commodity

- USDCNY: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| USDCNY | 2019-08-05 | [China's central bank denies devaluation is to counter tariffs](https://feedsoft.ai/events/5375-china-s-central-bank-denies-devaluation-is-to-counter-tariffs.md) | +1.8% | +3.1% |
| USDCNY | 2016-06-24 | [China Center Chart Dive: RMB devaluation — a guided market correction](https://feedsoft.ai/events/10882-china-center-chart-dive-rmb-devaluation-a-guided-market-correction.md) | +1.1% | +1.6% |
| USDCNY | 2021-09-24 | [The curious case of the super-stable renminbi \| Capital Economics](https://feedsoft.ai/events/45277-the-curious-case-of-the-super-stable-renminbi-capital-economics.md) | -0.2% | -1.2% |
| USDCNY | 2022-10-25 | [FX Daily: People’s Bank of China loosens its hold on the renminbi \| articles \| ING THINK](https://feedsoft.ai/events/39356-fx-daily-people-s-bank-of-china-loosens-its-hold-on-the-renminbi-articles-ing.md) | +0.6% | -1.7% |
| USDCNY | 2018-07-30 | [Renminbi/Chinese Yuan Depreciates as a Result of Economic Weakness and Loosening Policies - ActionForex](https://feedsoft.ai/events/64272-renminbi-chinese-yuan-depreciates-as-a-result-of-economic-weakness-and.md) | +0.3% | -0.1% |

## Sources

- ft.com: https://www.ft.com/content/3b127b6e-0e64-4e9a-b9d8-d0ddec21b587

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.