# Trade war would weigh on Europe's already weak outlook, ECB warns

> The ECB warned that a trade war with tariffs would further weaken Europe's already anaemic economy. The bank noted Europe's reliance on foreign trade and its industrial recession, which is driven by high energy costs and weak Chinese demand. It also warned that retaliation is likely.

- Date: 2024-11-06 · published 2024-11-06T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: trade · region Europe · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/5810-trade-war-would-weigh-on-europe-s-already-weak-outlook-ecb-warns
- Commodities: [Euro (USD per EUR)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/EURUSD.md)

## Why it matters

Expected retaliatory tariffs could cut transatlantic and Chinese trade flows, reducing demand for imported feed ingredients and pressuring export-linked prices.

## Read by commodity

- EURUSD: bearish ▼

## Linked price moves

| Commodity | Date | Window | Change % | z-score | Why linked |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| EURUSD | 2024-11-13 | 5 | -3.2% | -4.2 | The ECB's warning that a trade war would hurt the euro-area economy supports a weaker-growth, lower-rates narrative that is negative for the euro. |

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| EURUSD | 2019-11-08 | [Euro hits lowest in three weeks as dollar gains from trade optimism](https://feedsoft.ai/events/56283-euro-hits-lowest-in-three-weeks-as-dollar-gains-from-trade-optimism.md) | +0.0% | +0.2% |
| EURUSD | 2025-07-29 | [Australia, NZ dollars steady after tumble, gain on battered euro — TradingView News](https://feedsoft.ai/events/24040-australia-nz-dollars-steady-after-tumble-gain-on-battered-euro-tradingview-news.md) | -0.4% | +0.5% |
| EURUSD | 2025-02-27 | [EUR/USD tumbles as Trump threatens to impose reciprocal tariffs on April 2](https://feedsoft.ai/events/26274-eur-usd-tumbles-as-trump-threatens-to-impose-reciprocal-tariffs-on-april-2.md) | +2.4% | +2.5% |
| EURUSD | 2022-06-30 | [EU wheat firm supported by Egypt tender, weaker euro - Markets - Business Recorder](https://feedsoft.ai/events/40979-eu-wheat-firm-supported-by-egypt-tender-weaker-euro-markets-business-recorder.md) | -3.0% | -3.0% |
| EURUSD | 2025-02-03 | [Why Euro and US Dollar Are Getting Close to Parity Again (EUR/USD) - Bloomberg](https://feedsoft.ai/events/26271-why-euro-and-us-dollar-are-getting-close-to-parity-again-eur-usd-bloomberg.md) | -0.7% | +0.9% |

## Sources

- reuters.com: https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/euro-zone-disinflation-track-de-guindos-says-2024-11-06/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.