# Euro (EUR/USD) Parity Back in Play as Trump Win Spurs Rates Divergence - Bloomberg

> The euro fell 1.8% to about $1.07 after Trump's election win, its worst one-day drop since March 2020. ABN Amro, ING and Manulife expect the euro to slide toward parity with the dollar, and Mizuho and Deutsche Bank forecast $1.03 and $1.05 by year-end.

- Date: 2024-11-06 · published 2024-11-06T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: macro · region Europe · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/5807-euro-eur-usd-parity-back-in-play-as-trump-win-spurs-rates-divergence-bloomberg
- Commodities: [Euro (USD per EUR)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/EURUSD.md), [US Dollar (Broad)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/DXY.md)

## Why it matters

Wider rate differentials favor the dollar, which lowers dollar-denominated commodity prices and raises the cost of imported feed ingredients for euro-based buyers.

## Read by commodity

- DXY: bullish ▲
- EURUSD: bearish ▼

## Linked price moves

| Commodity | Date | Window | Change % | z-score | Why linked |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| EURUSD | 2024-11-06 | 1 | -1.7% | -5.8 | Documents the 1.8% euro drop, its worst day since March 2020, with rate divergence and parity forecasts reflecting the same post-election repricing. |
| EURUSD | 2024-11-13 | 5 | -3.2% | -4.2 | The euro suffered its worst one-day drop since 2020 after Trump's win, as rate divergence and tariff risk drove parity calls; this is the main driver of the 5-day decline. |
| DXY | 2024-11-06 | 1 | +0.9% | 3.6 | Euro's worst one-day drop since 2020 is the mirror image of dollar strength, since the euro is the largest weight in the broad index. |
| DXY | 2024-11-13 | 5 | +1.9% | 2.8 | Euro fell 1.8% in its worst day since 2020 on rate divergence, mechanically boosting the dollar basket. |

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| EURUSD | 2022-06-14 | [EUR/USD Euro Set to Hit Parity With Dollar in a Month, Wells Fargo Says - Bloomberg](https://feedsoft.ai/events/9636-eur-usd-euro-set-to-hit-parity-with-dollar-in-a-month-wells-fargo-says-bloomberg.md) | +1.1% | -3.4% |
| EURUSD | 2024-04-12 | [Euro (EUR USD) Falls to Five-Month Low as ECB-Fed Divergence Looms Large - Bloomberg](https://feedsoft.ai/events/9969-euro-eur-usd-falls-to-five-month-low-as-ecb-fed-divergence-looms-large-bloomberg.md) | -0.6% | +0.5% |
| EURUSD | 2023-09-14 | [ECB seals euro's fate; parity back in play?](https://feedsoft.ai/events/34314-ecb-seals-euro-s-fate-parity-back-in-play.md) | -0.2% | -1.7% |
| EURUSD | 2024-04-09 | [ECB-Fed Rates Split Ignites Talk of Euro Sliding to Dollar Parity - Bloomberg](https://feedsoft.ai/events/9973-ecb-fed-rates-split-ignites-talk-of-euro-sliding-to-dollar-parity-bloomberg.md) | -1.9% | -0.7% |
| EURUSD | 2024-11-12 | [(EUR/USD) Euro Parity With Dollar Is the Big New Call by Currency Analysts - Bloomberg](https://feedsoft.ai/events/7557-eur-usd-euro-parity-with-dollar-is-the-big-new-call-by-currency-analysts.md) | -1.2% | -1.8% |
| DXY | 2024-04-12 | [Euro (EUR USD) Falls to Five-Month Low as ECB-Fed Divergence Looms Large - Bloomberg](https://feedsoft.ai/events/9969-euro-eur-usd-falls-to-five-month-low-as-ecb-fed-divergence-looms-large-bloomberg.md) | +1.1% | +0.5% |
| DXY | 2024-04-09 | [ECB-Fed Rates Split Ignites Talk of Euro Sliding to Dollar Parity - Bloomberg](https://feedsoft.ai/events/9973-ecb-fed-rates-split-ignites-talk-of-euro-sliding-to-dollar-parity-bloomberg.md) | +1.4% | +1.0% |
| DXY | 2024-03-28 | [Currency Markets: A Decline in the Euro to Parity With the Dollar Beckons - Bloomberg](https://feedsoft.ai/events/31420-currency-markets-a-decline-in-the-euro-to-parity-with-the-dollar-beckons.md) | +0.0% | +1.6% |

## Sources

- bloomberg.com: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-06/euro-parity-back-in-play-as-trump-win-spurs-rates-divergence

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.