# ENSO forecast mash-ups: What’s the best way to combine human expertise with models? | NOAA Climate.gov

> NOAA Climate.gov describes an experiment combining human ENSO forecasters with computer models to predict El Niño and La Niña strength. The study found skillful strength forecasts are feasible and that human forecasters can be overly conservative.

- Date: 2019-07-01 · published 2019-07-01T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: report · region Global · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/58002-enso-forecast-mash-ups-what-s-the-best-way-to-combine-human-expertise-with
- Commodities: [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md), [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md), [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md), [Palm Oil](https://feedsoft.ai/c/PALMOIL.md)

## Why it matters

This is a methodological piece on forecasting technique with no new supply or demand event, so it has no direct effect on feed commodity prices.

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| CORN | 2022-05-01 | [Forecasting commodity returns by exploiting climate model forecasts of the El Niño Southern Oscillation](https://feedsoft.ai/events/41771-forecasting-commodity-returns-by-exploiting-climate-model-forecasts-of-the-el.md) | -8.1% | -2.4% |
| CORN | 2025-08-11 | [France raises wheat harvest forecast but expects corn production to decline](https://feedsoft.ai/events/23272-france-raises-wheat-harvest-forecast-but-expects-corn-production-to-decline.md) | -0.0% | +3.7% |
| CORN | 2018-08-08 | [France's Latest Forecasts Show How Grain Crops Are Feeling The Heat \| ESM Magazine](https://feedsoft.ai/events/63467-france-s-latest-forecasts-show-how-grain-crops-are-feeling-the-heat-esm-magazine.md) | -8.2% | -9.1% |
| CORN | 2024-10-16 | [France trims soft wheat crop estimate, raises maize forecast](https://feedsoft.ai/events/27790-france-trims-soft-wheat-crop-estimate-raises-maize-forecast.md) | +2.5% | +3.9% |
| CORN | 2017-12-04 | [U.S. ag exports forecast to climb to $140 billion \| World-grain.com \| December 04, 2017 14:36 \| World Grain](https://feedsoft.ai/events/67348-u-s-ag-exports-forecast-to-climb-to-140-billion-world-grain-com-december-04.md) | +0.1% | +5.5% |
| SOY | 2022-05-01 | [Forecasting commodity returns by exploiting climate model forecasts of the El Niño Southern Oscillation](https://feedsoft.ai/events/41771-forecasting-commodity-returns-by-exploiting-climate-model-forecasts-of-the-el.md) | -3.1% | +1.4% |
| SOY | 2021-11-05 | [Bumper crops forecast in Iowa, despite bumpy ride with weather \| The Gazette](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13405-bumper-crops-forecast-in-iowa-despite-bumpy-ride-with-weather-the-gazette.md) | +0.2% | +4.8% |
| SOY | 2019-07-12 | [Climate change surprise: It is helping grow more corn and soybeans in the Upper Midwest](https://feedsoft.ai/events/57925-climate-change-surprise-it-is-helping-grow-more-corn-and-soybeans-in-the-upper.md) | -1.7% | -3.5% |

## Sources

- climate.gov: https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/enso-forecast-mash-ups-what%E2%80%99s-best-way-combine-human-expertise-models

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.