# August 2019 El Niño Update-Stick a Fork in it - ProAg

> ProAg's August 9 El Niño update says the 2019 El Niño has officially ended, with the July Niño3.4 index at 0.4°C falling below the 0.5°C threshold for the first time since last September. Forecasters put ENSO-neutral at 50-55% likelihood through the Northern Hemisphere winter, and trade winds are rebounding toward average.

- Date: 2019-08-09 · published 2019-08-09T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: weather · region Global · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/57499-august-2019-el-nino-update-stick-a-fork-in-it-proag
- Commodities: [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md), [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md), [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md)

## Why it matters

The end of El Niño reduces the risk of weather-driven supply shocks in major exporting regions, which is generally bearish for grain and oilseed prices. Forecasters caution that neutral conditions still allow large weather swings.

## Read by commodity

- SOY: neutral
- CORN: neutral
- WHEAT: neutral

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| CORN | 2019-08-20 | [El Niño/La Niña Update (August 2019)](https://feedsoft.ai/events/57495-el-nino-la-nina-update-august-2019.md) | +1.3% | +1.3% |
| CORN | 2023-05-01 | [April 2023 ENSO update: El Niño Watch](https://feedsoft.ai/events/36314-april-2023-enso-update-el-nino-watch.md) | +0.3% | -1.8% |
| CORN | 2023-11-28 | [Global Seasonal Climate Update for July-August-September 2024](https://feedsoft.ai/events/33096-global-seasonal-climate-update-for-july-august-september-2024.md) | +2.2% | +4.6% |
| CORN | 2018-04-02 | [WMO El Niño/La Niña Update – March 2018 \| La Niña Ready Nations](https://feedsoft.ai/events/65446-wmo-el-nino-la-nina-update-march-2018-la-nina-ready-nations.md) | +2.3% | +3.1% |
| CORN | 2019-08-19 | [IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society \| 2019 August Quick Look](https://feedsoft.ai/events/57496-iri-international-research-institute-for-climate-and-society-2019-august-quick.md) | -1.9% | -3.6% |
| SOY | 2019-08-20 | [El Niño/La Niña Update (August 2019)](https://feedsoft.ai/events/57495-el-nino-la-nina-update-august-2019.md) | -0.0% | +4.7% |
| SOY | 2023-11-28 | [Global Seasonal Climate Update for July-August-September 2024](https://feedsoft.ai/events/33096-global-seasonal-climate-update-for-july-august-september-2024.md) | -1.8% | -1.2% |
| SOY | 2018-04-02 | [WMO El Niño/La Niña Update – March 2018 \| La Niña Ready Nations](https://feedsoft.ai/events/65446-wmo-el-nino-la-nina-update-march-2018-la-nina-ready-nations.md) | -1.1% | +0.0% |

## Sources

- proag.com: https://www.proag.com/news/august-2019-el-nino-update-stick-a-fork-in-it/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.