# IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society | 2019 August Quick Look

> The IRI's August 2019 quick look states that the weak 2018-19 El Niño has ended, with Pacific sea surface temperatures cooling to neutral in July. Collective model forecasts favor ENSO-neutral through autumn and winter, with slightly higher odds of El Niño than La Niña, and the official CPC/IRI outlook no longer carries an El Niño advisory.

- Date: 2019-08-19 · published 2019-08-19T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: weather · region Global · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/57496-iri-international-research-institute-for-climate-and-society-2019-august-quick
- Commodities: [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md), [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md), [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md), [Palm Oil](https://feedsoft.ai/c/PALMOIL.md)

## Why it matters

The end of El Niño reduces the likelihood of a major weather shock to global crops over the coming season, which eases supply-risk premiums. The slight tilt toward El Niño later is a minor offset for the market.

## Read by commodity

- SOY: neutral
- CORN: neutral
- WHEAT: neutral

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| WHEAT | 2019-12-19 | [IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society \| 2019 December Quick Look](https://feedsoft.ai/events/55497-iri-international-research-institute-for-climate-and-society-2019-december.md) | -0.0% | +2.6% |
| WHEAT | 2017-06-15 | [IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society \| 2017 June Quick Look](https://feedsoft.ai/events/70407-iri-international-research-institute-for-climate-and-society-2017-june-quick.md) | +0.4% | +0.4% |
| WHEAT | 2017-07-19 | [IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society \| 2017 July Quick Look](https://feedsoft.ai/events/69874-iri-international-research-institute-for-climate-and-society-2017-july-quick.md) | -2.9% | +0.4% |
| WHEAT | 2018-12-19 | [IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society \| 2018 December Quick Look](https://feedsoft.ai/events/61498-iri-international-research-institute-for-climate-and-society-2018-december.md) | -2.1% | -1.8% |
| WHEAT | 2020-10-23 | [IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society \| October Climate Briefing: La Niña Comes Knocking](https://feedsoft.ai/events/50562-iri-international-research-institute-for-climate-and-society-october-climate.md) | -0.1% | -4.5% |
| CORN | 2019-12-19 | [IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society \| 2019 December Quick Look](https://feedsoft.ai/events/55497-iri-international-research-institute-for-climate-and-society-2019-december.md) | +0.5% | +0.7% |
| CORN | 2019-11-19 | [IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society \| 2019 November Quick Look](https://feedsoft.ai/events/55979-iri-international-research-institute-for-climate-and-society-2019-november.md) | +0.6% | +2.5% |
| CORN | 2020-05-19 | [IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society \| 2020 May Quick Look](https://feedsoft.ai/events/53046-iri-international-research-institute-for-climate-and-society-2020-may-quick-look.md) | -0.5% | +2.4% |

## Sources

- iri.columbia.edu: https://iri.columbia.edu/news/2019/page/3/
- iri.columbia.edu: https://iri.columbia.edu/news/august-climate-briefing-el-nino-makes-an-exit/
- iri.columbia.edu: https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/2019-august-quick-look/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.