# El Niño/La Niña Update (August 2019)

> The WMO reports that tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures returned to neutral ENSO levels in July after a borderline-to-weak El Niño since October 2018. Models give about a 60% chance of neutral conditions for September-November 2019, with El Niño at about 30% and La Niña at 10%.

- Date: 2019-08-20 · published 2019-08-20T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: weather · region Global · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/57495-el-nino-la-nina-update-august-2019
- Commodities: [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md), [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md), [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md)

## Why it matters

A neutral ENSO outlook removes a major driver of Southern Hemisphere and global crop-weather risk, which is generally bearish for weather-premium grain and meal prices. Rising El Niño odds into 2020 would be a modest supportive factor for later-season contracts.

## Read by commodity

- SOY: neutral
- CORN: neutral
- WHEAT: neutral

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| CORN | 2019-08-09 | [August 2019 El Niño Update-Stick a Fork in it - ProAg](https://feedsoft.ai/events/57499-august-2019-el-nino-update-stick-a-fork-in-it-proag.md) | -7.7% | -8.0% |
| CORN | 2018-04-02 | [WMO El Niño/La Niña Update – March 2018 \| La Niña Ready Nations](https://feedsoft.ai/events/65446-wmo-el-nino-la-nina-update-march-2018-la-nina-ready-nations.md) | +2.3% | +3.1% |
| CORN | 2017-07-07 | [WMO El Niño/La Niña Update, 7 July 2017 - World \| ReliefWeb](https://feedsoft.ai/events/69875-wmo-el-nino-la-nina-update-7-july-2017-world-reliefweb.md) | -4.4% | -3.6% |
| CORN | 2023-05-01 | [April 2023 ENSO update: El Niño Watch](https://feedsoft.ai/events/36314-april-2023-enso-update-el-nino-watch.md) | +0.3% | -1.8% |
| CORN | 2025-12-03 | [WMO Update predicts weak La Niña](https://feedsoft.ai/events/21414-wmo-update-predicts-weak-la-nina.md) | +0.7% | -0.4% |
| SOY | 2019-08-09 | [August 2019 El Niño Update-Stick a Fork in it - ProAg](https://feedsoft.ai/events/57499-august-2019-el-nino-update-stick-a-fork-in-it-proag.md) | -0.8% | -2.3% |
| SOY | 2018-04-02 | [WMO El Niño/La Niña Update – March 2018 \| La Niña Ready Nations](https://feedsoft.ai/events/65446-wmo-el-nino-la-nina-update-march-2018-la-nina-ready-nations.md) | -1.1% | +0.0% |
| SOY | 2025-12-03 | [WMO Update predicts weak La Niña](https://feedsoft.ai/events/21414-wmo-update-predicts-weak-la-nina.md) | -3.3% | -8.4% |

## Sources

- wmo.int: https://wmo.int/files/el-ninola-nina-update-august-2019

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.