# Rabobank: ASF impacts becoming clear | 2019-08-27  | MEAT+POULTRY

> Rabobank's report on African swine fever says China's 2019 pork production could fall 25%, with herd losses near 50%. It expects Vietnam's production to drop 15% to 20%, and a further 10% to 15% decline in pork output in 2020. Chinese live hog and pork prices have reached record highs.

- Date: 2019-08-27 · published 2019-08-27T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: disease · region China · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/57474-rabobank-asf-impacts-becoming-clear-2019-08-27-meat-poultry
- Commodities: [Lean Hogs](https://feedsoft.ai/c/HOGS.md), [Soybean Meal](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SBM.md)

## Why it matters

A sharp fall in Chinese pork supply reduces the herd and cuts feed demand for soymeal and corn, while pushing up hog prices. The longer rebuilding period means the bullish hog outlook could persist for years.

## Read by commodity

- SBM: bearish ▼
- HOGS: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| HOGS | 2019-05-24 | [On alert for ASF \| 2019-05-24  \| MEAT+POULTRY](https://feedsoft.ai/events/58968-on-alert-for-asf-2019-05-24-meat-poultry.md) | -5.7% | -9.9% |
| HOGS | 2019-10-02 | [ASF outside China has global implications \| 2019-10-02  \| MEAT+POULTRY](https://feedsoft.ai/events/56456-asf-outside-china-has-global-implications-2019-10-02-meat-poultry.md) | +0.1% | +3.6% |
| HOGS | 2019-04-10 | [ASF spreads to Tibet \| 2019-04-10  \| MEAT+POULTRY](https://feedsoft.ai/events/59459-asf-spreads-to-tibet-2019-04-10-meat-poultry.md) | +7.3% | +5.6% |
| HOGS | 2020-01-17 | [Meat and poultry market update regarding ASF, meat alternatives \| 2020-01-17  \| MEAT+POULTRY](https://feedsoft.ai/events/55243-meat-and-poultry-market-update-regarding-asf-meat-alternatives-2020-01-17-meat.md) | +2.2% | -11.6% |
| HOGS | 2019-12-12 | [Rabobank: ASF will remain dominant animal protein issue in 2020 \| 2019-12-12  \| World Grain](https://feedsoft.ai/events/55585-rabobank-asf-will-remain-dominant-animal-protein-issue-in-2020-2019-12-12-world.md) | +8.7% | +5.5% |
| SBM | 2019-05-31 | [ASF impacts on feed \| 2019-05-31  \| MEAT+POULTRY](https://feedsoft.ai/events/59078-asf-impacts-on-feed-2019-05-31-meat-poultry.md) | -3.5% | -4.6% |
| SBM | 2019-05-24 | [On alert for ASF \| 2019-05-24  \| MEAT+POULTRY](https://feedsoft.ai/events/58968-on-alert-for-asf-2019-05-24-meat-poultry.md) | +8.1% | +6.2% |
| SBM | 2019-01-29 | [China pig feed numbers stay strong in 2018; ASF could impact 2019](https://feedsoft.ai/events/61086-china-pig-feed-numbers-stay-strong-in-2018-asf-could-impact-2019.md) | -0.5% | -2.9% |

## Sources

- meatpoultry.com: https://www.meatpoultry.com/articles/21808-rabobank-asf-impacts-becoming-clear

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.