# Supply cutbacks collide with US and Indian demand to lift urea values 18% since early-January

> Middle East urea spot prices rose above $480/t FOB, up 18% since early January, and North African deals pushed prices above $500/t for the first time since November 2025. China is absent from export trade due to a lack of export quotas, and Iranian seasonal gas diversions are removing up to 450,000 t/month from the market.

- Date: 2026-02-04 · published 2026-02-04T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: trade · region Global · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/5720-supply-cutbacks-collide-with-us-and-indian-demand-to-lift-urea-values-18-since
- Commodities: [Urea](https://feedsoft.ai/c/UREA.md)

## Why it matters

Tight export supply from China, Iran and Indonesia meets expected US and Indian buying, which supports firm urea prices into spring. Higher fertilizer costs squeeze feed-grain margins and raise input costs for feed producers.

## Read by commodity

- UREA: bullish ▲

## Linked price moves

| Commodity | Date | Window | Change % | z-score | Why linked |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| UREA | 2026-02-02 | 1 | +6.7% | 5.9 | Supply cutbacks (no Chinese export quotas, Iranian seasonal gas diversions of up to 450kt/month) combined with US and Indian demand lifted urea spot prices, which is a direct supply and trade-flow driver, though published after the move date. |

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| UREA | 2025-02-21 | [Urea prices surge due to strong Indian demand and tight supplies \| Farm Weekly \| WA](https://feedsoft.ai/events/26360-urea-prices-surge-due-to-strong-indian-demand-and-tight-supplies-farm-weekly-wa.md) | -0.5% | -4.7% |
| UREA | 2025-08-28 | [Global urea prices spike on sudden Indian demand, low stocks - The HinduBusinessLine](https://feedsoft.ai/events/23637-global-urea-prices-spike-on-sudden-indian-demand-low-stocks-the.md) | -7.5% | -8.9% |
| UREA | 2021-09-03 | [Urea market rallies in the west, while east continues to await Indian announcement](https://feedsoft.ai/events/5162-urea-market-rallies-in-the-west-while-east-continues-to-await-indian.md) | +8.6% | +43.5% |
| UREA | 2021-10-08 | [Urea values continue rapid ascent as supplies remain limited, no signs of slow-down in sight](https://feedsoft.ai/events/5909-urea-values-continue-rapid-ascent-as-supplies-remain-limited-no-signs-of-slow.md) | +4.0% | +9.9% |
| UREA | 2022-05-20 | [Urea: RCF purchasing inquiry concludes, ME and N. African fob values stable](https://feedsoft.ai/events/41328-urea-rcf-purchasing-inquiry-concludes-me-and-n-african-fob-values-stable.md) | -0.8% | -22.0% |

## Sources

- profercy.com: https://www.profercy.com/insights/supply-cutbacks-collide-with-us-and-indian-demand-to-lift-urea-values

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.