# Stocks Surprise and Residual Reflections

> USDA's Sept. 30 Grain Stocks report put corn stocks at 2.12 billion bushels, far below analyst expectations, and soybean stocks at 913 million bushels, below the expected range of 940 million to 1.001 billion. USDA also adjusted 2018 production estimates, lowering the soybean yield by a bushel and trimming planted acreage.

- Date: 2019-09-30 · published 2019-09-30T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: report · region US · magnitude high
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/57010-stocks-surprise-and-residual-reflections
- Commodities: [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md), [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md), [Soybean Meal](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SBM.md)

## Why it matters

The surprise sets lower beginning stocks for the 2019-20 balance sheet, which could tighten the October WASDE outlook and support feed grain and soymeal values. Analysts will focus on whether USDA revises the new-crop numbers.

## Read by commodity

- SBM: bullish ▲
- SOY: bullish ▲
- CORN: bullish ▲

## Linked price moves

| Commodity | Date | Window | Change % | z-score | Why linked |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| SBM | 2019-09-30 | 1 | +2.8% | 3.1 | Stocks surprise below the expected range plus lowered 2018 yield estimates supported a supply-driven rally. |

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| CORN | 2024-07-16 | [Demand draws surprise drop in old crop stocks – AgriNews](https://feedsoft.ai/events/7101-demand-draws-surprise-drop-in-old-crop-stocks-agrinews.md) | +3.0% | +0.7% |
| CORN | 2024-07-12 | [July WASDE Surprises Trade With Old Crop Ending Stocks Reductions](https://feedsoft.ai/events/7099-july-wasde-surprises-trade-with-old-crop-ending-stocks-reductions.md) | -2.4% | -2.7% |
| CORN | 2020-12-03 | [Ag Markets Surprised by Stocks Report \| Feed & Grain](https://feedsoft.ai/events/49582-ag-markets-surprised-by-stocks-report-feed-and-grain.md) | +0.0% | +3.9% |
| CORN | 2021-11-09 | [WASDE Report Surprises With Lower Yield, Production, Soy Stocks](https://feedsoft.ai/events/43997-wasde-report-surprises-with-lower-yield-production-soy-stocks.md) | +1.2% | +5.2% |
| CORN | 2021-06-11 | [Old-Crop Corn Stocks Surprise of WASDE Report \| Feed & Grain](https://feedsoft.ai/events/46505-old-crop-corn-stocks-surprise-of-wasde-report-feed-and-grain.md) | -6.1% | -4.6% |
| SOY | 2024-07-12 | [July WASDE Surprises Trade With Old Crop Ending Stocks Reductions](https://feedsoft.ai/events/7099-july-wasde-surprises-trade-with-old-crop-ending-stocks-reductions.md) | -3.9% | -11.6% |
| SOY | 2020-12-03 | [Ag Markets Surprised by Stocks Report \| Feed & Grain](https://feedsoft.ai/events/49582-ag-markets-surprised-by-stocks-report-feed-and-grain.md) | +0.5% | +14.1% |
| SOY | 2021-11-09 | [WASDE Report Surprises With Lower Yield, Production, Soy Stocks](https://feedsoft.ai/events/43997-wasde-report-surprises-with-lower-yield-production-soy-stocks.md) | +6.7% | +6.1% |

## Sources

- dtnpf.com: https://www.dtnpf.com/agriculture/web/ag/news/article/2019/09/30/stocks-surprise-residual-reflections

---
Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.