# Rabobank: ASF to affect markets, flow for 3-5 years

> Rabobank's global ASF report expects China's herd loss to reach about 55% by year end, with pork output down 25% in 2019 and a further 10-15% drop in 2020. Pork imports are expected to rise in the third and fourth quarters, with the US, Canada and Brazil needed to supply more.

- Date: 2019-10-03 · published 2019-10-03T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: disease · region China · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/56564-rabobank-asf-to-affect-markets-flow-for-3-5-years
- Commodities: [Lean Hogs](https://feedsoft.ai/c/HOGS.md), [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md), [Soybean Meal](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SBM.md)

## Why it matters

Sustained Chinese pork shortfalls point to higher import demand that could benefit US and Brazilian meat exports and support hog and feed demand, while lower domestic feed use weighs on grain and meal.

## Read by commodity

- SBM: bearish ▼
- CORN: bearish ▼
- HOGS: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| HOGS | 2019-08-27 | [Rabobank: ASF impacts becoming clear \| 2019-08-27  \| MEAT+POULTRY](https://feedsoft.ai/events/57474-rabobank-asf-impacts-becoming-clear-2019-08-27-meat-poultry.md) | -1.6% | -10.7% |
| HOGS | 2021-02-08 | [China hog futures surge to one-month high on mounting ASF fear - Fastmarkets](https://feedsoft.ai/events/48627-china-hog-futures-surge-to-one-month-high-on-mounting-asf-fear-fastmarkets.md) | +4.5% | +20.2% |
| HOGS | 2019-04-22 | [Pork and Soybean Markets Adjust to African Swine Fever - ProAg](https://feedsoft.ai/events/59588-pork-and-soybean-markets-adjust-to-african-swine-fever-proag.md) | -0.6% | +3.2% |
| HOGS | 2019-05-23 | [ASF to send restaurant food costs higher](https://feedsoft.ai/events/59229-asf-to-send-restaurant-food-costs-higher.md) | -4.5% | -8.0% |
| HOGS | 2019-04-17 | [ASF-driven rebound makes marketing difficult](https://feedsoft.ai/events/7157-asf-driven-rebound-makes-marketing-difficult.md) | +1.3% | -1.0% |
| CORN | 2019-04-14 | [Deadly Pig Disease to Reshape Global Soy Markets for Years - Bloomberg](https://feedsoft.ai/events/59632-deadly-pig-disease-to-reshape-global-soy-markets-for-years-bloomberg.md) | +0.4% | -2.5% |
| CORN | 2020-01-28 | [Coronavirus Fears Prompt Flight to Safety in Commodity Markets - Caixin Global](https://feedsoft.ai/events/8057-coronavirus-fears-prompt-flight-to-safety-in-commodity-markets-caixin-global.md) | -0.8% | -2.1% |
| CORN | 2021-02-08 | [China hog futures surge to one-month high on mounting ASF fear - Fastmarkets](https://feedsoft.ai/events/48627-china-hog-futures-surge-to-one-month-high-on-mounting-asf-fear-fastmarkets.md) | -2.3% | -2.3% |

## Sources

- feedstuffs.com: https://www.feedstuffs.com/market-news/rabobank-asf-to-affect-markets-trade-flow-for-3-5-years

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.