# NOAA: October 2019 ENSO Update: Scary Stuff as 85% Chance of Neutral El Niño/La Niña Winter - SnowBrains

> SnowBrains republishes the Climate.gov October 2019 ENSO update, which gives about an 85% chance that the tropical Pacific stays ENSO-neutral through fall and 55-60% through spring. It explains that a recent rise in Niño3.4 temperatures does not yet qualify as El Niño.

- Date: 2019-10-11 · published 2019-10-11T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: weather · region Global · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/56495-noaa-october-2019-enso-update-scary-stuff-as-85-chance-of-neutral-el-nino-la
- Commodities: [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md), [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md), [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md), [Palm Oil](https://feedsoft.ai/c/PALMOIL.md)

## Why it matters

Neutral conditions point to no strong ENSO-driven supply shock for corn, soy or other feed inputs, so the price effect is minimal.

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| CORN | 2021-10-14 | [October 2021 ENSO update: La Niña is here! \| NOAA Climate.gov](https://feedsoft.ai/events/44467-october-2021-enso-update-la-nina-is-here-noaa-climate-gov.md) | +3.2% | +13.8% |
| CORN | 2022-10-13 | [October 2022 La Niña update: snack size \| NOAA Climate.gov](https://feedsoft.ai/events/39022-october-2022-la-nina-update-snack-size-noaa-climate-gov.md) | +1.6% | -1.2% |
| CORN | 2019-12-12 | [December 2019 ENSO update: neutral, rinse, repeat \| NOAA Climate.gov](https://feedsoft.ai/events/55496-december-2019-enso-update-neutral-rinse-repeat-noaa-climate-gov.md) | +5.5% | +5.7% |
| CORN | 2025-07-10 | [Climate Prediction Center sees 56% chance of ENSO neutral conditions in August-October](https://feedsoft.ai/events/23660-climate-prediction-center-sees-56-chance-of-enso-neutral-conditions-in-august.md) | -1.0% | -3.0% |
| CORN | 2019-08-20 | [El Niño/La Niña Update (August 2019)](https://feedsoft.ai/events/57495-el-nino-la-nina-update-august-2019.md) | +1.3% | +1.3% |
| SOY | 2021-10-14 | [October 2021 ENSO update: La Niña is here! \| NOAA Climate.gov](https://feedsoft.ai/events/44467-october-2021-enso-update-la-nina-is-here-noaa-climate-gov.md) | +4.2% | +0.7% |
| SOY | 2022-10-13 | [October 2022 La Niña update: snack size \| NOAA Climate.gov](https://feedsoft.ai/events/39022-october-2022-la-nina-update-snack-size-noaa-climate-gov.md) | -1.7% | +4.6% |
| SOY | 2019-12-12 | [December 2019 ENSO update: neutral, rinse, repeat \| NOAA Climate.gov](https://feedsoft.ai/events/55496-december-2019-enso-update-neutral-rinse-repeat-noaa-climate-gov.md) | +3.9% | +4.6% |

## Sources

- snowbrains.com: https://snowbrains.com/noaa-october-enso-el-nino/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.