# Southwest Climate Outlook - El Niño Tracker - October 2019 | CLIMAS

> The CLIMAS October 2019 El Niño Tracker summarizes forecasts from JMA, NOAA CPC, IRI and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, all pointing to ENSO-neutral conditions through 2019 and into 2020. The NOAA CPC gave an 85% chance of neutral through fall and 55-60% through spring 2020.

- Date: 2019-10-16 · published 2019-10-16T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: weather · region US · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/56494-southwest-climate-outlook-el-nino-tracker-october-2019-climas
- Commodities: [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md), [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md), [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md), [Palm Oil](https://feedsoft.ai/c/PALMOIL.md)

## Why it matters

A neutral ENSO outlook removes a major source of large-scale crop-weather risk, so it carries little direct price impact for feed grains.

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| CORN | 2018-10-19 | [Southwest Climate Outlook El Niño Tracker - October 2018 \| CLIMAS](https://feedsoft.ai/events/62474-southwest-climate-outlook-el-nino-tracker-october-2018-climas.md) | -2.9% | -6.2% |
| CORN | 2020-06-14 | [Southwest Climate Outlook - El Niño Tracker - June 2020 \| CLIMAS](https://feedsoft.ai/events/52530-southwest-climate-outlook-el-nino-tracker-june-2020-climas.md) | +0.4% | +0.1% |
| CORN | 2020-04-30 | [Southwest Climate Outlook - El Niño Tracker - April 2020 \| CLIMAS](https://feedsoft.ai/events/53555-southwest-climate-outlook-el-nino-tracker-april-2020-climas.md) | +1.9% | +2.3% |
| CORN | 2017-07-12 | [El Niño Outlook for July 2017](https://feedsoft.ai/events/69876-el-nino-outlook-for-july-2017.md) | -4.1% | -5.2% |
| CORN | 2022-10-13 | [October 2022 La Niña update: snack size \| NOAA Climate.gov](https://feedsoft.ai/events/39022-october-2022-la-nina-update-snack-size-noaa-climate-gov.md) | +1.6% | -1.2% |
| SOY | 2018-10-19 | [Southwest Climate Outlook El Niño Tracker - October 2018 \| CLIMAS](https://feedsoft.ai/events/62474-southwest-climate-outlook-el-nino-tracker-october-2018-climas.md) | -2.5% | +2.9% |
| SOY | 2020-06-14 | [Southwest Climate Outlook - El Niño Tracker - June 2020 \| CLIMAS](https://feedsoft.ai/events/52530-southwest-climate-outlook-el-nino-tracker-june-2020-climas.md) | +0.6% | +0.6% |
| SOY | 2020-04-30 | [Southwest Climate Outlook - El Niño Tracker - April 2020 \| CLIMAS](https://feedsoft.ai/events/53555-southwest-climate-outlook-el-nino-tracker-april-2020-climas.md) | -0.2% | +1.8% |

## Sources

- climas.arizona.edu: https://climas.arizona.edu/news/southwest-climate-outlook-el-nino-tracker-october-2019

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.