# ASF outside China has global implications | 2019-10-02  | MEAT+POULTRY

> A Rabobank report says African swine fever outside China is reshaping global animal protein supply, with Vietnam's herd down about 20% in 2019 and new outbreaks in South Korea, the Philippines and Timor-Leste. China's pork output is expected to fall 25% in 2019 to just over 40 million metric tons, with further declines likely in early 2020.

- Date: 2019-10-02 · published 2019-10-02T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: disease · region Global · magnitude high
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/56456-asf-outside-china-has-global-implications-2019-10-02-meat-poultry
- Commodities: [Lean Hogs](https://feedsoft.ai/c/HOGS.md), [Chicken](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CHICKEN.md), [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md), [Soybean Meal](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SBM.md)

## Why it matters

A steep drop in Chinese pork output raises import demand for other proteins and feed ingredients, supporting global feed grain and meal demand. The structural shift toward poultry and seafood also supports chicken prices.

## Read by commodity

- SBM: bullish ▲
- CORN: bullish ▲
- HOGS: bullish ▲
- CHICKEN: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| HOGS | 2019-02-01 | [Global protein outlook includes challenges, opportunities \| 2019-02-01  \| MEAT+POULTRY](https://feedsoft.ai/events/60708-global-protein-outlook-includes-challenges-opportunities-2019-02-01-meat-poultry.md) | -1.0% | -2.6% |
| HOGS | 2019-04-10 | [ASF spreads to Tibet \| 2019-04-10  \| MEAT+POULTRY](https://feedsoft.ai/events/59459-asf-spreads-to-tibet-2019-04-10-meat-poultry.md) | +7.3% | +5.6% |
| HOGS | 2019-05-24 | [On alert for ASF \| 2019-05-24  \| MEAT+POULTRY](https://feedsoft.ai/events/58968-on-alert-for-asf-2019-05-24-meat-poultry.md) | -5.7% | -9.9% |
| HOGS | 2019-08-27 | [Rabobank: ASF impacts becoming clear \| 2019-08-27  \| MEAT+POULTRY](https://feedsoft.ai/events/57474-rabobank-asf-impacts-becoming-clear-2019-08-27-meat-poultry.md) | -1.6% | -10.7% |
| HOGS | 2018-10-24 | [African swine fever, trade war pain points for China \| 2018-10-24  \| MEAT+POULTRY](https://feedsoft.ai/events/62546-african-swine-fever-trade-war-pain-points-for-china-2018-10-24-meat-poultry.md) | +3.1% | -0.5% |
| CORN | 2019-04-10 | [ASF spreads to Tibet \| 2019-04-10  \| MEAT+POULTRY](https://feedsoft.ai/events/59459-asf-spreads-to-tibet-2019-04-10-meat-poultry.md) | +1.1% | -1.0% |
| CORN | 2018-12-21 | [Best of 2018: African Swine Fever impacts global protein flows \| 2018-12-21  \| MEAT+POULTRY](https://feedsoft.ai/events/61453-best-of-2018-african-swine-fever-impacts-global-protein-flows-2018-12-21-meat.md) | +0.2% | +1.7% |
| CORN | 2020-01-14 | [ASF drives global poultry market in 2020 \| WATTAgNet \| WATTPoultry.com](https://feedsoft.ai/events/55242-asf-drives-global-poultry-market-in-2020-wattagnet-wattpoultry-com.md) | +0.5% | -2.2% |

## Sources

- meatpoultry.com: https://www.meatpoultry.com/articles/21982-asf-outside-china-has-global-implications

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.