# Daily Market Wire 18 March 2025 - Grain Central

> Overnight wheat markets rose in the US on wind-driven dust in the Southern Plains and a dry Black Sea region, with the 15-day forecast showing no rain for HRW areas. Russian major wheat regions face a 24% precipitation deficit, and Brazil's soybean harvest is 70% complete, the most advanced in a decade. Russia's wheat export tax falls to US$28.54 per tonne from US$29.13.

- Date: 2025-03-17 · published 2025-03-17T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: weather · region Black Sea · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/5625-daily-market-wire-18-march-2025-grain-central
- Commodities: [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md), [Wheat (HRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/KWHEAT.md), [Canola Meal](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CANMEAL.md), [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md)

## Why it matters

Dry conditions in US HRW and Russian growing areas threaten yields and support wheat prices, while a lower Russian export tax may encourage more Russian shipments and cap gains. Rapid Brazilian soy harvest adds to export supply pressure.

## Read by commodity

- SOY: bearish ▼
- WHEAT: bullish ▲
- KWHEAT: bullish ▲
- CANMEAL: neutral

## Linked price moves

| Commodity | Date | Window | Change % | z-score | Why linked |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| KWHEAT | 2025-03-16 | 1 | +5.6% | 3.3 | Dust storms in the Southern Plains, a dry 15-day HRW forecast and a 24% precipitation deficit in Russia support the supply-risk premium behind the rally. |
| WHEAT | 2025-03-17 | 1 | +4.4% | 6.1 | Reports wind-driven dust in the Southern Plains, no rain in the HRW forecast and a Russian precipitation deficit, which are supply-risk drivers behind the rally, though the report is dated after the move. |

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| WHEAT | 2018-02-28 | [Daily market wire 2 March 2018 - Grain Central](https://feedsoft.ai/events/12436-daily-market-wire-2-march-2018-grain-central.md) | +2.3% | +1.0% |
| WHEAT | 2017-05-01 | [Daily market wire 2 May 2017 - Grain Central](https://feedsoft.ai/events/6137-daily-market-wire-2-may-2017-grain-central.md) | +2.3% | +1.5% |
| WHEAT | 2025-09-16 | [Daily Market Wire 17 September 2025 - Grain Central](https://feedsoft.ai/events/7569-daily-market-wire-17-september-2025-grain-central.md) | +0.3% | +1.5% |
| WHEAT | 2019-05-21 | [Daily Market Wire 21 May 2019 - Grain Central](https://feedsoft.ai/events/5632-daily-market-wire-21-may-2019-grain-central.md) | -13.2% | -6.0% |
| WHEAT | 2021-02-17 | [Daily Market Wire 17 February 2021 - Grain Central](https://feedsoft.ai/events/9255-daily-market-wire-17-february-2021-grain-central.md) | +0.8% | -0.3% |
| KWHEAT | 2018-02-28 | [Daily market wire 2 March 2018 - Grain Central](https://feedsoft.ai/events/12436-daily-market-wire-2-march-2018-grain-central.md) | +8.2% | -5.1% |
| KWHEAT | 2017-05-01 | [Daily market wire 2 May 2017 - Grain Central](https://feedsoft.ai/events/6137-daily-market-wire-2-may-2017-grain-central.md) | +3.1% | +3.0% |
| KWHEAT | 2025-09-16 | [Daily Market Wire 17 September 2025 - Grain Central](https://feedsoft.ai/events/7569-daily-market-wire-17-september-2025-grain-central.md) | -2.3% | -6.4% |

## Sources

- graincentral.com: https://www.graincentral.com/markets/daily-market-wire-18-march-2025/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.