# IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society | October Climate Briefing: El Niño Remains Neutral

> IRI's October climate briefing reports that the Niño3.4 anomaly was 0.4C, within the neutral range, and that the odds of El Niño continuing through the year dropped to around 40%. It explains differences between human-judged official forecasts and model-only forecasts.

- Date: 2019-11-01 · published 2019-11-01T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: weather · region Global · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/55983-iri-international-research-institute-for-climate-and-society-october-climate
- Commodities: [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md), [Palm Oil](https://feedsoft.ai/c/PALMOIL.md)

## Why it matters

Lower El Niño odds reduce the chance of a drought-driven supply shock in Australia, Southeast Asia or southern Africa, which removes a source of upside pressure on grain and oilseed prices.

## Read by commodity

- WHEAT: neutral
- PALMOIL: neutral

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| WHEAT | 2020-10-23 | [IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society \| October Climate Briefing: La Niña Comes Knocking](https://feedsoft.ai/events/50562-iri-international-research-institute-for-climate-and-society-october-climate.md) | -0.1% | -4.5% |
| WHEAT | 2018-04-30 | [IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society \| April Climate Briefing: La Niña Transitions Out, Neutral Next](https://feedsoft.ai/events/65444-iri-international-research-institute-for-climate-and-society-april-climate.md) | +2.6% | +2.8% |
| WHEAT | 2017-05-25 | [IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society \| May Climate Briefing: El Niño Odds Down Slightly](https://feedsoft.ai/events/70913-iri-international-research-institute-for-climate-and-society-may-climate.md) | -0.3% | -0.7% |
| WHEAT | 2017-07-24 | [IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society \| July Climate Briefing: El Niño Odds Continue Downward Trend](https://feedsoft.ai/events/69873-iri-international-research-institute-for-climate-and-society-july-climate.md) | -2.5% | +0.0% |
| WHEAT | 2017-06-19 | [IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society \| June Climate Briefing: El Niño Odds Continue Downward Trend](https://feedsoft.ai/events/70405-iri-international-research-institute-for-climate-and-society-june-climate.md) | -0.7% | -1.2% |
| PALMOIL | 2017-07-24 | [IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society \| July Climate Briefing: El Niño Odds Continue Downward Trend](https://feedsoft.ai/events/69873-iri-international-research-institute-for-climate-and-society-july-climate.md) | +0.7% | +3.8% |
| PALMOIL | 2017-06-19 | [IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society \| June Climate Briefing: El Niño Odds Continue Downward Trend](https://feedsoft.ai/events/70405-iri-international-research-institute-for-climate-and-society-june-climate.md) | -0.6% | +2.2% |
| PALMOIL | 2025-11-19 | [IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society \| November 2025 Quick Look](https://feedsoft.ai/events/21854-iri-international-research-institute-for-climate-and-society-november-2025.md) | -1.2% | -1.7% |

## Sources

- iri.columbia.edu: https://iri.columbia.edu/news/october-climate-briefing-el-nino-remains-neutral/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.