# WMO issues El Niño/La Niña update - World | ReliefWeb

> The WMO update estimates a 65% chance of ENSO-neutral conditions for December 2019 through February 2020, with 30% odds of El Niño and 5% of La Niña. Sea surface temperatures are expected to return to near-average levels after November and stay neutral into the first half of 2020.

- Date: 2019-11-29 · published 2019-11-29T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: weather · region Global · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/55980-wmo-issues-el-nino-la-nina-update-world-reliefweb
- Commodities: [Palm Oil](https://feedsoft.ai/c/PALMOIL.md), [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md)

## Why it matters

A neutral outlook reduces the likelihood of a strong weather shock to Southeast Asian palm oil, Australian wheat or South American crops, so no major supply premium is implied from ENSO alone.

## Read by commodity

- WHEAT: neutral
- PALMOIL: neutral

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| PALMOIL | 2017-07-07 | [WMO El Niño/La Niña Update, 7 July 2017 - World \| ReliefWeb](https://feedsoft.ai/events/69875-wmo-el-nino-la-nina-update-7-july-2017-world-reliefweb.md) | +0.2% | +2.4% |
| PALMOIL | 2026-03-03 | [El Niño/La Niña Update (February 2026) - World \| ReliefWeb](https://feedsoft.ai/events/20089-el-nino-la-nina-update-february-2026-world-reliefweb.md) | +6.5% | +7.1% |
| PALMOIL | 2018-09-27 | [Seasonal Outlook: Haze Update – El Niño Ready Nations](https://feedsoft.ai/events/62945-seasonal-outlook-haze-update-el-nino-ready-nations.md) | -0.8% | -0.8% |
| PALMOIL | 2023-02-21 | [As La Niña Exits, Palm Oil Production Could Rise in 2023 but Drop in 2024](https://feedsoft.ai/events/37249-as-la-nina-exits-palm-oil-production-could-rise-in-2023-but-drop-in-2024.md) | +0.5% | -3.5% |
| PALMOIL | 2017-08-11 | [El Niño Outlook for August 2017](https://feedsoft.ai/events/69374-el-nino-outlook-for-august-2017.md) | -0.1% | +6.6% |
| WHEAT | 2017-07-07 | [WMO El Niño/La Niña Update, 7 July 2017 - World \| ReliefWeb](https://feedsoft.ai/events/69875-wmo-el-nino-la-nina-update-7-july-2017-world-reliefweb.md) | -1.7% | +0.9% |
| WHEAT | 2026-03-03 | [El Niño/La Niña Update (February 2026) - World \| ReliefWeb](https://feedsoft.ai/events/20089-el-nino-la-nina-update-february-2026-world-reliefweb.md) | +1.8% | +1.3% |
| WHEAT | 2018-04-02 | [WMO El Niño/La Niña Update – March 2018 \| La Niña Ready Nations](https://feedsoft.ai/events/65446-wmo-el-nino-la-nina-update-march-2018-la-nina-ready-nations.md) | +1.6% | +5.2% |

## Sources

- reliefweb.int: https://reliefweb.int/report/world/wmo-issues-el-ni-ola-ni-update

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.