# Farmer Fertilizer Focus - Phosphates

> StoneX analyst Josh Linville expects phosphate prices to rise in coming weeks or months. He cites Chinese export blocks, which cover about 32% of global phosphate trade, very low Indian stockpiles, low North American inventories, and possible Russian export restrictions.

- Date: 2021-11-01 · published 2021-11-01T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: trade · region Global · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/5552-farmer-fertilizer-focus-phosphates
- Commodities: [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md), [Phosphate Rock](https://feedsoft.ai/c/PHOSROCK.md), [Potash (KCl)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/POTASH.md), [TSP](https://feedsoft.ai/c/TSP.md), [DAP](https://feedsoft.ai/c/DAP.md)

## Why it matters

With China restricting exports and Indian and North American stocks thin, phosphate supply is tight, and prices could climb further if fall demand is strong.

## Read by commodity

- DAP: bullish ▲
- TSP: bullish ▲
- CORN: neutral
- POTASH: bullish ▲
- PHOSROCK: bullish ▲

## Linked price moves

| Commodity | Date | Window | Change % | z-score | Why linked |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| DAP | 2021-11-01 | 1 | +4.4% | 6.2 | Dated the same day as the move, the analyst commentary points to tight phosphate supply (Chinese export blocks covering about 32% of global trade, low Indian and North American stocks, possible Russian restrictions), a bullish supply and sentiment driver that plausibly contributed to the DAP jump, though it is a forecast and not a discrete shock. |

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| CORN | 2023-04-27 | [May '23 Farmer Fertilizer Focus - Phosphates](https://feedsoft.ai/events/6330-may-23-farmer-fertilizer-focus-phosphates.md) | -0.9% | -4.0% |
| CORN | 2024-04-01 | [April '24 Aussie Farmer Fertilizer Focus - Phosphates](https://feedsoft.ai/events/4549-april-24-aussie-farmer-fertilizer-focus-phosphates.md) | -4.2% | -6.0% |
| CORN | 2025-04-16 | [Will Sky-High Phosphate Prices Spell Disaster for Farmers?](https://feedsoft.ai/events/25436-will-sky-high-phosphate-prices-spell-disaster-for-farmers.md) | -0.8% | -6.1% |
| CORN | 2020-10-01 | [U.S. fertilizer prices surge to decade high](https://feedsoft.ai/events/50574-u-s-fertilizer-prices-surge-to-decade-high.md) | -0.3% | +6.4% |
| CORN | 2021-08-15 | [Fertilizer demand remains strong \| Profitability \| farmweeknow.com](https://feedsoft.ai/events/45869-fertilizer-demand-remains-strong-profitability-farmweeknow-com.md) | -3.1% | -8.4% |

## Sources

- stonex.com: https://www.stonex.com/en-gb/insights/farmer-fertilizer-focus-potash-2021-11-01/
- stonex.com: https://www.stonex.com/en-us/insights/farmer-fertilizer-focus-phosphates-2021-11-01/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.