# The Black Sea May Be the Key to Higher Wheat Prices - ProAg

> An analysis argues that Black Sea wheat exporters (Russia, Ukraine, Kazakhstan) now supply a third of world wheat exports and are likely the main driver of Oklahoma and Texas wheat prices. It cites the 2010/11 Black Sea production collapse, which lifted U.S. prices by about $5 per bushel.

- Date: 2019-12-31 · published 2019-12-31T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: geopolitics · region Black Sea · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/55128-the-black-sea-may-be-the-key-to-higher-wheat-prices-proag
- Commodities: [Wheat (HRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/KWHEAT.md), [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md)

## Why it matters

Black Sea output is the key swing factor for world wheat prices, so any crop shortfall there would lift HRW values and feed wheat costs.

## Read by commodity

- WHEAT: bullish ▲
- KWHEAT: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| KWHEAT | 2026-08-31 | [Wheat: Black Sea risks are driving up wheat prices](https://feedsoft.ai/events/17937-wheat-black-sea-risks-are-driving-up-wheat-prices.md) | -5.0% | -9.9% |
| KWHEAT | 2024-05-21 | [Wheat prices soar as Black Sea crop causes concern \| Dry Bulk](https://feedsoft.ai/events/4594-wheat-prices-soar-as-black-sea-crop-causes-concern-dry-bulk.md) | +5.0% | -13.8% |
| KWHEAT | 2026-10-28 | [Wheat Prices Surge: Black Sea Conflict and Production Data (2026)](https://feedsoft.ai/events/447-wheat-prices-surge-black-sea-conflict-and-production-data-2026.md) | +0.5% | — |
| KWHEAT | 2026-07-16 | [Russia and Ukraine strike vessels in Black Sea, wheat prices jump](https://feedsoft.ai/events/7279-russia-and-ukraine-strike-vessels-in-black-sea-wheat-prices-jump.md) | +6.0% | +0.1% |
| KWHEAT | 2026-07-22 | [Wheat Rallies to Near 3 Year Highs on Wednesday on Black Sea Export Limitations](https://feedsoft.ai/events/9560-wheat-rallies-to-near-3-year-highs-on-wednesday-on-black-sea-export-limitations.md) | -0.9% | +1.5% |
| WHEAT | 2026-08-31 | [Wheat: Black Sea risks are driving up wheat prices](https://feedsoft.ai/events/17937-wheat-black-sea-risks-are-driving-up-wheat-prices.md) | +2.2% | +6.1% |
| WHEAT | 2023-05-05 | [Black Sea tensions keep grain prices afloat](https://feedsoft.ai/events/7385-black-sea-tensions-keep-grain-prices-afloat.md) | -1.9% | -5.2% |
| WHEAT | 2023-05-05 | [Wheat prices surge as Kremlin drone attack stokes Black Sea tensions](https://feedsoft.ai/events/7380-wheat-prices-surge-as-kremlin-drone-attack-stokes-black-sea-tensions.md) | -1.9% | -5.2% |

## Sources

- farmprogress.com: https://www.farmprogress.com/wheat/the-black-sea-may-be-the-key-to-higher-wheat-prices
- proag.com: https://www.proag.com/news/the-black-sea-may-be-the-key-to-higher-wheat-prices/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.