# USD/EM: Trump fuel rise in US yields threatens EM - MUFG — Octa

> MUFG analysts said rising US Treasury yields after the Trump election could reverse popular 2016 carry trades in emerging-market currencies. They singled out the Brazilian real, which had been the best-performing Latin American currency that year, and flagged risk for Mexico, Chile and Colombia.

- Date: 2016-11-11 · published 2016-11-11T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: macro · region Global · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/5467-usd-em-trump-fuel-rise-in-us-yields-threatens-em-mufg-octa
- Commodities: [US Dollar (Broad)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/DXY.md), [Brazilian Real (BRL per USD)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/USDBRL.md), [Mexican Peso (MXN per USD)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/USDMXN.md)

## Why it matters

A stronger dollar and higher US yields raise the local-currency cost of dollar-priced feed ingredients in emerging markets and can pressure import-dependent buyers. Currency weakness in key South American exporters can also affect their export competitiveness.

## Read by commodity

- DXY: bullish ▲
- USDBRL: bullish ▲
- USDMXN: bullish ▲

## Linked price moves

| Commodity | Date | Window | Change % | z-score | Why linked |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| USDBRL | 2016-11-16 | 5 | +7.5% | 3.5 | Rising US Treasury yields threatened to unwind EM carry trades, with the real as the 2016 top performer most exposed, which supports further dollar-buying demand. |
| DXY | 2016-11-16 | 5 | +3.1% | 3.9 | Rising US yields after the election were flagged as threatening EM currencies, reinforcing dollar strength. |

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| DXY | 2021-09-27 | [U.S. dollar gains, tracks rise in Treasury yields](https://feedsoft.ai/events/45255-u-s-dollar-gains-tracks-rise-in-treasury-yields.md) | +0.5% | -0.1% |
| DXY | 2026-06-29 | [US Dollar: Supported with elevated real yields – MUFG](https://feedsoft.ai/events/19014-us-dollar-supported-with-elevated-real-yields-mufg.md) | -0.0% | -0.1% |
| DXY | 2026-05-26 | [US Dollar: Higher yields and data keep Fed repricing in focus – MUFG](https://feedsoft.ai/events/19468-us-dollar-higher-yields-and-data-keep-fed-repricing-in-focus-mufg.md) | -0.1% | +1.5% |
| DXY | 2021-06-28 | [USD/JPY remains strong above 110.80 amid higher US Treasury yields — Octa](https://feedsoft.ai/events/46841-usd-jpy-remains-strong-above-110-80-amid-higher-us-treasury-yields-octa.md) | +0.5% | +1.1% |
| DXY | 2020-07-31 | [USD/JPY is in the middle of big reversal as Treasury yields rebound](https://feedsoft.ai/events/52344-usd-jpy-is-in-the-middle-of-big-reversal-as-treasury-yields-rebound.md) | -0.3% | -0.6% |
| USDBRL | 2016-11-14 | [Brazil real weakens for fourth day as Trump concern boosts U.S. yields](https://feedsoft.ai/events/9711-brazil-real-weakens-for-fourth-day-as-trump-concern-boosts-u-s-yields.md) | +0.7% | -0.4% |
| USDBRL | 2018-10-04 | [Soaring US dollar threatens trouble for emerging markets \| Currencies \| The Guardian](https://feedsoft.ai/events/62719-soaring-us-dollar-threatens-trouble-for-emerging-markets-currencies-the-guardian.md) | -3.1% | -4.7% |
| USDBRL | 2024-07-08 | [Special Analysis \| Why did the USDBRL rise so much in 2024?](https://feedsoft.ai/events/29480-special-analysis-why-did-the-usdbrl-rise-so-much-in-2024.md) | -0.4% | +4.7% |

## Sources

- octaafrica.net: https://www.octaafrica.net/markets/news/view/382110/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.