# Uncertainty leads to urea spike | Farm Online | ACT

> Australian urea prices rose about $50/t over the previous fortnight, with the FOB Middle East value up from $350/t to $390/t since mid-February. Rabobank attributed the rise mainly to farmers shifting from just-in-time to just-in-case buying amid trade uncertainty, with a weaker Australian dollar and possible demand from India and the US as further factors. Australian stocks from strong 2019 imports may still be unsold.

- Date: 2020-03-12 · published 2020-03-12T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: trade · region Australia · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/54427-uncertainty-leads-to-urea-spike-farm-online-act
- Commodities: [Urea](https://feedsoft.ai/c/UREA.md), [Australian Dollar (USD per AUD)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/AUDUSD.md)

## Why it matters

A shift to precautionary buying lifts near-term urea demand and prices, and a weaker Australian dollar raises the local cost of imports. Carry-over stocks in Australia could limit how far the rally runs.

## Read by commodity

- UREA: bullish ▲
- AUDUSD: bearish ▼

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| UREA | 2026-02-25 | [Understanding the surge in urea prices for Aussie farmers \| Farm Online \| ACT](https://feedsoft.ai/events/20926-understanding-the-surge-in-urea-prices-for-aussie-farmers-farm-online-act.md) | +28.3% | +35.4% |
| UREA | 2026-09-30 | [Lock in contracts: urea price revives as grain activity spurs demand \| Farm Online \| ACT](https://feedsoft.ai/events/17784-lock-in-contracts-urea-price-revives-as-grain-activity-spurs-demand-farm-online.md) | -5.1% | -4.3% |
| UREA | 2020-11-18 | [Urea Slows Downward Trend -- Prices Uncertain Ahead](https://feedsoft.ai/events/50088-urea-slows-downward-trend-prices-uncertain-ahead.md) | +0.4% | +7.4% |
| UREA | 2025-06-02 | [EU’s AD Duties on Russia, Belarus Create Urea Market Uncertainty \| CZ app](https://feedsoft.ai/events/4335-eu-s-ad-duties-on-russia-belarus-create-urea-market-uncertainty-cz-app.md) | -18.3% | -14.1% |
| UREA | 2021-08-09 | [Fert markets watching potential China export slowdown \| Farm Online \| ACT](https://feedsoft.ai/events/45870-fert-markets-watching-potential-china-export-slowdown-farm-online-act.md) | 0.0% | +18.3% |

## Sources

- farmonline.com.au: https://www.farmonline.com.au/story/6675679/uncertainty-leads-to-urea-spike/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.