# AgRural reduces soybean forecast for 19/20 crop due to drought in Rio Grande do Sul - DatamarNews

> AgRural cut its 2019/20 Brazil soybean crop estimate to 124.3 million tons from 125.6 million, due to drought in Rio Grande do Sul. Brazil is set for its lowest soybean productivity since 2011/12, though other states partly offset the losses. Harvest was 59% complete by March 12, slightly ahead of the five-year average.

- Date: 2020-03-16 · published 2020-03-16T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: weather · region Brazil · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/53980-agrural-reduces-soybean-forecast-for-19-20-crop-due-to-drought-in-rio-grande-do
- Commodities: [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md), [Soybean Meal](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SBM.md)

## Why it matters

A smaller Brazilian soybean crop reduces export supply and supports soybean and meal prices, especially as Brazil is the main competitor to U.S. exports. The effect is moderated by offsetting gains elsewhere in Brazil.

## Read by commodity

- SBM: bullish ▲
- SOY: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| SOY | 2023-03-08 | [Drought affects crops in Rio Grande do Sul](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13658-drought-affects-crops-in-rio-grande-do-sul.md) | -1.7% | -0.5% |
| SOY | 2025-03-12 | [Drought shrinks soybean crops, wiping R$13bn from Rio Grande do Sul economy](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13510-drought-shrinks-soybean-crops-wiping-r-13bn-from-rio-grande-do-sul-economy.md) | +1.5% | -0.5% |
| SOY | 2019-02-06 | [Drought takes toll on soybean harvest in Goiás but spares Paraná - DatamarNews](https://feedsoft.ai/events/60443-drought-takes-toll-on-soybean-harvest-in-goias-but-spares-parana-datamarnews.md) | -0.3% | -3.3% |
| SOY | 2022-01-17 | [Brazil’s Drought Reduces Grain Harvest Forecasts](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13749-brazil-s-drought-reduces-grain-harvest-forecasts.md) | +3.4% | +15.7% |
| SOY | 2023-09-04 | [Crop tour sees lower soybean estimates due to drought, record heat  \| World Grain](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13245-crop-tour-sees-lower-soybean-estimates-due-to-drought-record-heat-world-grain.md) | -0.3% | -5.8% |
| SBM | 2023-03-08 | [Drought affects crops in Rio Grande do Sul](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13658-drought-affects-crops-in-rio-grande-do-sul.md) | -1.9% | -8.4% |
| SBM | 2025-03-12 | [Drought shrinks soybean crops, wiping R$13bn from Rio Grande do Sul economy](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13510-drought-shrinks-soybean-crops-wiping-r-13bn-from-rio-grande-do-sul-economy.md) | +1.6% | -0.4% |
| SBM | 2019-02-06 | [Drought takes toll on soybean harvest in Goiás but spares Paraná - DatamarNews](https://feedsoft.ai/events/60443-drought-takes-toll-on-soybean-harvest-in-goias-but-spares-parana-datamarnews.md) | -0.1% | -2.5% |

## Sources

- datamarnews.com: https://datamarnews.com/noticias/agrural-reduces-soybean-forecast-for-19-20-crop-due-to-drought-in-rio-grande-do-sul/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.