# Analyst Insight: What is the risk of intervention in global grain markets? | AHDB

> AHDB analysis says recent export restriction talk in the Black Sea, including Ukraine, Russia and Kazakhstan, has caused short-term volatility in wheat. UK feed wheat futures fell on the day, with the old-crop May contract at £155.25/t and new-crop November at £164.50/t. Analysts expect large global wheat crops next season to keep the market fundamentally bearish.

- Date: 2020-04-02 · published 2020-04-02T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: policy · region Black Sea · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/53718-analyst-insight-what-is-the-risk-of-intervention-in-global-grain-markets-ahdb
- Commodities: [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md)

## Why it matters

Export bans can add short-term support to wheat prices, but large expected global crops are likely to limit any lasting rally for feed buyers.

## Read by commodity

- WHEAT: neutral

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| WHEAT | 2021-01-26 | [Sask Wheat says grain markets are uncertain this week \| 620 CKRM - The Voice of Saskatchewan \| Harvard Media](https://feedsoft.ai/events/49179-sask-wheat-says-grain-markets-are-uncertain-this-week-620-ckrm-the-voice-of.md) | -9.4% | -0.2% |
| WHEAT | 2022-10-18 | [India has sufficient stocks of grains, could sell wheat in open market](https://feedsoft.ai/events/39078-india-has-sufficient-stocks-of-grains-could-sell-wheat-in-open-market.md) | -0.7% | +1.6% |
| WHEAT | 2025-10-03 | [Argentina Export Tax Shock Hits Grain Markets](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13828-argentina-export-tax-shock-hits-grain-markets.md) | +0.3% | +6.0% |
| WHEAT | 2018-09-11 | [Wheat still ‘Russian’ out the ports - Grain Central](https://feedsoft.ai/events/62872-wheat-still-russian-out-the-ports-grain-central.md) | -7.4% | -7.0% |
| WHEAT | 2023-10-26 | [Neighbourly feuds. The problem with Ukrainian grain on the Central European markets \| OSW Centre for Eastern Studies](https://feedsoft.ai/events/14357-neighbourly-feuds-the-problem-with-ukrainian-grain-on-the-central-european.md) | +2.2% | +1.7% |

## Sources

- ahdb.org.uk: https://ahdb.org.uk/news/analyst-insight-what-is-the-risk-of-intervention-in-global-grain-markets

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.