# Trade war escalation wreaks havoc in markets: Impact on FX | Lombard Odier

> Lombard Odier revised its FX forecasts after the US announced 10% tariffs on the remaining $300 billion of Chinese goods. China responded by halting purchases of US agricultural products, and USDCNY rose above 7.00 as the US labeled China a currency manipulator.

- Date: 2019-08-07 · published 2019-08-07T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: trade · region China · magnitude high
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/5370-trade-war-escalation-wreaks-havoc-in-markets-impact-on-fx-lombard-odier
- Commodities: [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md), [Chinese Yuan (CNY per USD)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/USDCNY.md)

## Why it matters

Halting US farm purchases removes a major export outlet for soybeans and related products, which is bearish for soybean prices. The currency move also raises the risk of a wider trade fallout.

## Read by commodity

- SOY: bearish ▼
- USDCNY: bullish ▲

## Linked price moves

| Commodity | Date | Window | Change % | z-score | Why linked |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| USDCNY | 2019-08-07 | 5 | +2.6% | 3.9 | The tariff escalation, China's halt of US agricultural purchases and the manipulator label pushed USDCNY above 7.00. |

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| SOY | 2019-08-25 | [Oil Markets Hit Hard By Trade War Escalation \| OilPrice.com](https://feedsoft.ai/events/57749-oil-markets-hit-hard-by-trade-war-escalation-oilprice-com.md) | +1.6% | +5.8% |
| SOY | 2019-05-14 | [US-China trade stand-off and implications for FX markets \| Lombard Odier](https://feedsoft.ai/events/8442-us-china-trade-stand-off-and-implications-for-fx-markets-lombard-odier.md) | +5.2% | +8.6% |
| SOY | 2019-08-23 | [New Trade War Escalation Sends Shockwaves Through Oil Markets \| OilPrice.com](https://feedsoft.ai/events/57750-new-trade-war-escalation-sends-shockwaves-through-oil-markets-oilprice-com.md) | +0.0% | +3.1% |
| SOY | 2018-06-21 | [Trade war scare looms over dry freight market](https://feedsoft.ai/events/64704-trade-war-scare-looms-over-dry-freight-market.md) | -2.5% | -4.9% |
| SOY | 2018-03-23 | [Asian markets jittery over trade war fears](https://feedsoft.ai/events/66230-asian-markets-jittery-over-trade-war-fears.md) | +1.5% | -0.1% |
| USDCNY | 2019-05-14 | [US-China trade stand-off and implications for FX markets \| Lombard Odier](https://feedsoft.ai/events/8442-us-china-trade-stand-off-and-implications-for-fx-markets-lombard-odier.md) | +0.5% | +0.5% |
| USDCNY | 2019-05-09 | [Foreign Exchange Markets Anxious Ahead Of Trade Talks](https://feedsoft.ai/events/10433-foreign-exchange-markets-anxious-ahead-of-trade-talks.md) | +1.4% | +1.9% |
| USDCNY | 2019-08-05 | [Oil Slumps Into Bear Market as Trade Tensions Feed Demand Angst - Bloomberg](https://feedsoft.ai/events/10827-oil-slumps-into-bear-market-as-trade-tensions-feed-demand-angst-bloomberg.md) | +1.8% | +3.1% |

## Sources

- lombardodier.com: https://www.lombardodier.com/contents/corporate-news/investment-insights/2019/august/trade-war-escalation-wreaks-havo.html

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.