# Palm oil prices seen capped by Malaysian stocks despite El Niño outlook, top analyst says | The Star

> Dorab Mistry said Malaysian palm oil stocks are likely to exceed 3 million tons by the end of October, which will weigh on prices. The benchmark fell 1.58% to 4,537 ringgit after reaching a near two-year high of 5,049 ringgit in mid-September. Mistry also noted that Indonesia's planned 50% biodiesel blending mandate could tighten supplies.

- Date: 2026-10-01 · published 2026-10-01T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: policy · region Malaysia · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/5356-palm-oil-prices-seen-capped-by-malaysian-stocks-despite-el-nino-outlook-top
- Commodities: [Palm Oil](https://feedsoft.ai/c/PALMOIL.md), [Crude Oil (WTI)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WTI.md)

## Why it matters

Indonesia's biodiesel mandate would absorb more palm oil and support prices, while high inventories are the near-term constraint. The net effect leaves palm oil prices range-bound.

## Read by commodity

- WTI: neutral
- PALMOIL: neutral

## Linked price moves

| Commodity | Date | Window | Change % | z-score | Why linked |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| PALMOIL | 2026-10-02 | 5 | -6.0% | -3.5 | Mistry's view that Malaysian stocks will exceed 3 million tons caps prices, and the retreat from the mid-September high of 5,049 ringgit shows bearish stock sentiment. |
| PALMOIL | 2026-10-01 | 1 | -5.4% | -6.7 | Same-day analyst view that Malaysian stocks will exceed 3 million tons weighs on prices, with the benchmark down sharply from mid-September highs (supply and sentiment). |

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| PALMOIL | 2019-06-20 | [Malaysia keeps July crude palm oil export duty at 0% \| The Star](https://feedsoft.ai/events/58467-malaysia-keeps-july-crude-palm-oil-export-duty-at-0-the-star.md) | -0.9% | -1.8% |
| PALMOIL | 2017-12-11 | [Sanity should prevail over proposed EU palm oil ban - The Malaysian Reserve](https://feedsoft.ai/events/67487-sanity-should-prevail-over-proposed-eu-palm-oil-ban-the-malaysian-reserve.md) | +0.9% | +6.2% |
| PALMOIL | 2020-11-30 | [Malaysia says no decision to extend palm oil export tax exemption beyond 2020 - The Business Times](https://feedsoft.ai/events/50045-malaysia-says-no-decision-to-extend-palm-oil-export-tax-exemption-beyond-2020.md) | +4.7% | +6.7% |
| PALMOIL | 2022-01-06 | [Even world's top oil palm grower Indonesia is worried about prices \| The Straits Times](https://feedsoft.ai/events/15849-even-world-s-top-oil-palm-grower-indonesia-is-worried-about-prices-the-straits.md) | +0.3% | +10.5% |
| PALMOIL | 2019-12-21 | [CPO export tax unlikely to affect EU demand, says Malaysian Palm Oil Council CEO \| Malay Mail](https://feedsoft.ai/events/55458-cpo-export-tax-unlikely-to-affect-eu-demand-says-malaysian-palm-oil-council-ceo.md) | +1.2% | +6.5% |
| WTI | 2022-05-05 | [OPEC+ sticks to modest oil output hike despite price rally](https://feedsoft.ai/events/41317-opec-sticks-to-modest-oil-output-hike-despite-price-rally.md) | -2.1% | +8.4% |
| WTI | 2018-10-16 | [Malaysia’s biodiesel output, exports set to hit records  \| The Star](https://feedsoft.ai/events/62407-malaysia-s-biodiesel-output-exports-set-to-hit-records-the-star.md) | -3.6% | -16.6% |
| WTI | 2020-07-28 | [Additional exports of 300,000 tonnes palm oil expected to Greece, Balkan markets \| The Star](https://feedsoft.ai/events/51974-additional-exports-of-300-000-tonnes-palm-oil-expected-to-greece-balkan-markets.md) | -1.5% | +2.4% |

## Sources

- thestar.com.my: https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2026/10/01/palm-oil-prices-seen-capped-by-malaysian-stocks-despite-el-nio-outlook-top-analyst-says

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.