# U.S. forecaster sees 65% chance for no El Nino, La Nina during summer

> The U.S. Climate Prediction Center gave about a 65% chance of ENSO-neutral conditions this northern summer, with neutral odds of 45% to 50% through autumn. The agency noted that El Niño emerged in 2018 and has been linked to crop damage.

- Date: 2020-05-14 · published 2020-05-14T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: weather · region US · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/53048-u-s-forecaster-sees-65-chance-for-no-el-nino-la-nina-during-summer
- Commodities: [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md), [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md)

## Why it matters

Neutral conditions imply no ENSO-driven weather premium for US corn and soybeans this summer, so the forecast is mildly bearish for risk premiums in feed grains.

## Read by commodity

- SOY: neutral
- CORN: neutral

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| CORN | 2024-12-12 | [US forecaster sees 59% chance of weak, brief La Nina forming by January](https://feedsoft.ai/events/26863-us-forecaster-sees-59-chance-of-weak-brief-la-nina-forming-by-january.md) | -0.0% | +5.6% |
| CORN | 2024-11-14 | [US forecaster sees 57% chance of La Nina developing between now and December \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/27326-us-forecaster-sees-57-chance-of-la-nina-developing-between-now-and-december.md) | +0.2% | +0.4% |
| CORN | 2026-02-12 | [US forecaster sees signs of La Nina shift towards El Nino conditions in early 2026 \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/20517-us-forecaster-sees-signs-of-la-nina-shift-towards-el-nino-conditions-in-early.md) | -0.0% | +3.5% |
| CORN | 2024-06-13 | [La Nina weather 65% likely to develop in July-Sept, says US forecaster \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/29658-la-nina-weather-65-likely-to-develop-in-july-sept-says-us-forecaster-reuters.md) | -2.1% | -8.8% |
| CORN | 2025-03-03 | [What La Nina’s departure could mean for U.S. ag](https://feedsoft.ai/events/25498-what-la-nina-s-departure-could-mean-for-u-s-ag.md) | -0.2% | +2.5% |
| SOY | 2024-12-12 | [US forecaster sees 59% chance of weak, brief La Nina forming by January](https://feedsoft.ai/events/26863-us-forecaster-sees-59-chance-of-weak-brief-la-nina-forming-by-january.md) | -4.4% | +1.8% |
| SOY | 2024-11-14 | [US forecaster sees 57% chance of La Nina developing between now and December \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/27326-us-forecaster-sees-57-chance-of-la-nina-developing-between-now-and-december.md) | -1.4% | -0.8% |
| SOY | 2026-02-12 | [US forecaster sees signs of La Nina shift towards El Nino conditions in early 2026 \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/20517-us-forecaster-sees-signs-of-la-nina-shift-towards-el-nino-conditions-in-early.md) | +1.5% | +7.9% |

## Sources

- reuters.com: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-weather-elnino/u-s-forecaster-sees-65-chance-for-no-el-nino-la-nina-during-summer-idUSKBN22Q24F/?feedName=domesticNews&feedType=RSS

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.