# IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society | May Climate Briefing: ENSO-Neutral Conditions Dominate

> The IRI May climate briefing says equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures have cooled to neutral levels, with models favoring neutral conditions from summer through winter. The Aug-Oct outlook gives 51% odds of ENSO-neutral, 30% La Niña and 20% El Niño.

- Date: 2020-05-26 · published 2020-05-26T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: weather · region Global · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/53045-iri-international-research-institute-for-climate-and-society-may-climate
- Commodities: [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md), [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md)

## Why it matters

Cooler-leaning ENSO odds point to a higher chance of La Niña later in 2020, which historically brings drought risk to South American crops and can firm soybean and corn prices.

## Read by commodity

- SOY: bullish ▲
- CORN: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| CORN | 2017-12-27 | [IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society \| December Climate Briefing: New Year, Same La Niña](https://feedsoft.ai/events/67399-iri-international-research-institute-for-climate-and-society-december-climate.md) | +0.4% | +1.3% |
| CORN | 2020-07-21 | [IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society \| July Climate Briefing: La Niña Watch Issued](https://feedsoft.ai/events/52035-iri-international-research-institute-for-climate-and-society-july-climate.md) | -0.3% | +2.6% |
| CORN | 2020-08-20 | [IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society \| August Climate Briefing: La Niña Seeming More Likely](https://feedsoft.ai/events/51518-iri-international-research-institute-for-climate-and-society-august-climate.md) | +2.7% | +10.2% |
| CORN | 2020-10-23 | [IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society \| October Climate Briefing: La Niña Comes Knocking](https://feedsoft.ai/events/50562-iri-international-research-institute-for-climate-and-society-october-climate.md) | +0.8% | +10.6% |
| CORN | 2018-07-30 | [IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society \| July Climate Briefing: Models Continue to Predict El Niño in Coming Months](https://feedsoft.ai/events/63936-iri-international-research-institute-for-climate-and-society-july-climate.md) | +1.3% | -1.6% |
| SOY | 2017-12-27 | [IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society \| December Climate Briefing: New Year, Same La Niña](https://feedsoft.ai/events/67399-iri-international-research-institute-for-climate-and-society-december-climate.md) | +0.1% | +3.4% |
| SOY | 2020-07-21 | [IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society \| July Climate Briefing: La Niña Watch Issued](https://feedsoft.ai/events/52035-iri-international-research-institute-for-climate-and-society-july-climate.md) | +0.4% | +1.1% |
| SOY | 2020-08-20 | [IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society \| August Climate Briefing: La Niña Seeming More Likely](https://feedsoft.ai/events/51518-iri-international-research-institute-for-climate-and-society-august-climate.md) | +0.8% | +12.7% |

## Sources

- iri.columbia.edu: https://iri.columbia.edu/news/may-climate-briefing-enso-neutral-conditions-dominate/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.