# Skillful Very Long-Lead Forecasts Anticipate Potential Back-to-Back Below-normal East African Rains – CHC Blog

> A CHC blog post uses North American Multimodel Ensemble climate predictions to forecast a higher chance of dry October-December 2020 and March-May 2021 rains in East Africa. The authors note the region already faces widespread acute food insecurity and that the projection carries a high degree of uncertainty.

- Date: 2020-06-17 · published 2020-06-17T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: weather · region East Africa · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/52526-skillful-very-long-lead-forecasts-anticipate-potential-back-to-back-below
- Commodities: [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md), [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md), [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md), [Palm Oil](https://feedsoft.ai/c/PALMOIL.md)

## Why it matters

Back-to-back East African droughts would increase regional food import needs, mainly for grains. The effect on global feed prices is small because the region's import volumes are modest relative to world trade.

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| CORN | 2020-07-15 | [Skillful Very Long-Lead Forecasts Anticipate Potential Back-to-Back Below-Normal East African Rains, July Update – CHC Blog](https://feedsoft.ai/events/52038-skillful-very-long-lead-forecasts-anticipate-potential-back-to-back-below.md) | -2.3% | -3.2% |
| CORN | 2021-03-17 | [Why La Niña and “Western V” Climate Conditions Continue to Appear Conducive to Poor Eastern East Africa March-to-May 2021 Rains and Crop Production – CHC Blog](https://feedsoft.ai/events/48024-why-la-nina-and-western-v-climate-conditions-continue-to-appear-conducive-to.md) | +11.0% | +14.2% |
| CORN | 2022-12-22 | [How long will La Nina extend into 2023? Latest official forecasts - Grain Price News](https://feedsoft.ai/events/38151-how-long-will-la-nina-extend-into-2023-latest-official-forecasts-grain-price.md) | +2.1% | +2.1% |
| CORN | 2023-10-18 | [Current ENSO and IOD Conditions, Forecasts, and the Potential Impacts](https://feedsoft.ai/events/33547-current-enso-and-iod-conditions-forecasts-and-the-potential-impacts.md) | +1.9% | -1.3% |
| CORN | 2026-06-02 | [India cuts foodgrains output target amid below normal monsoon forecast - The HinduBusinessLine](https://feedsoft.ai/events/18741-india-cuts-foodgrains-output-target-amid-below-normal-monsoon-forecast-the.md) | -4.9% | -8.5% |
| SOY | 2026-04-13 | [IMD Forecasts Below Normal South West Monsoon Rainfall in 2026, El Niño to Impact India’s Kharif Season](https://feedsoft.ai/events/19635-imd-forecasts-below-normal-south-west-monsoon-rainfall-in-2026-el-nino-to.md) | -0.7% | +1.6% |
| SOY | 2022-12-22 | [How long will La Nina extend into 2023? Latest official forecasts - Grain Price News](https://feedsoft.ai/events/38151-how-long-will-la-nina-extend-into-2023-latest-official-forecasts-grain-price.md) | +1.9% | +0.6% |
| SOY | 2022-06-03 | [East Africa - Seasonal outlook for the “short rains season”](https://feedsoft.ai/events/40860-east-africa-seasonal-outlook-for-the-short-rains-season.md) | +2.3% | -6.0% |

## Sources

- blog.chc.ucsb.edu: https://blog.chc.ucsb.edu/?p=757

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.