# IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society | June Climate Briefing: La Niña Odds Increasing

> The IRI June climate briefing says sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific have cooled to borderline La Niña levels. Its model runs give cool-neutral or weak La Niña a 45-50% probability for the July-September through September-November seasons.

- Date: 2020-06-22 · published 2020-06-22T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: weather · region Global · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/52520-iri-international-research-institute-for-climate-and-society-june-climate
- Commodities: [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md), [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md), [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md), [Palm Oil](https://feedsoft.ai/c/PALMOIL.md)

## Why it matters

Rising La Niña odds raise the chance of drier conditions in parts of South America and wetter ones in Australia, which could shift export supply expectations for grains and oilseeds. The signal is still weak, so price impact is limited for now.

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| CORN | 2020-07-21 | [IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society \| July Climate Briefing: La Niña Watch Issued](https://feedsoft.ai/events/52035-iri-international-research-institute-for-climate-and-society-july-climate.md) | -0.3% | +2.6% |
| CORN | 2020-10-23 | [IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society \| October Climate Briefing: La Niña Comes Knocking](https://feedsoft.ai/events/50562-iri-international-research-institute-for-climate-and-society-october-climate.md) | +0.8% | +10.6% |
| CORN | 2017-12-27 | [IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society \| December Climate Briefing: New Year, Same La Niña](https://feedsoft.ai/events/67399-iri-international-research-institute-for-climate-and-society-december-climate.md) | +0.4% | +1.3% |
| CORN | 2020-08-20 | [IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society \| August Climate Briefing: La Niña Seeming More Likely](https://feedsoft.ai/events/51518-iri-international-research-institute-for-climate-and-society-august-climate.md) | +2.7% | +10.2% |
| CORN | 2017-05-25 | [IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society \| May Climate Briefing: El Niño Odds Down Slightly](https://feedsoft.ai/events/70913-iri-international-research-institute-for-climate-and-society-may-climate.md) | -0.2% | -1.2% |
| SOY | 2020-07-21 | [IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society \| July Climate Briefing: La Niña Watch Issued](https://feedsoft.ai/events/52035-iri-international-research-institute-for-climate-and-society-july-climate.md) | +0.4% | +1.1% |
| SOY | 2020-10-23 | [IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society \| October Climate Briefing: La Niña Comes Knocking](https://feedsoft.ai/events/50562-iri-international-research-institute-for-climate-and-society-october-climate.md) | -2.0% | +9.7% |
| SOY | 2017-12-27 | [IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society \| December Climate Briefing: New Year, Same La Niña](https://feedsoft.ai/events/67399-iri-international-research-institute-for-climate-and-society-december-climate.md) | +0.1% | +3.4% |

## Sources

- iri.columbia.edu: https://iri.columbia.edu/news/june-climate-briefing-la-nina-odds-increasing/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.