# Ad Hoc Payments: A Leading Indicator of Farm Policy Change

> A farmdoc daily analysis by university economists argues that the sharp rise in ad hoc farm payments in 2019 and 2020 may signal a move to a higher permanent plateau of US farm payments. The authors note that two previous increases followed the same pattern, with ad hoc aid later incorporated into the farm bill safety net.

- Date: 2020-08-01 · published 2020-08-01T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: policy · region US · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/52100-ad-hoc-payments-a-leading-indicator-of-farm-policy-change
- Commodities: [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md), [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md)

## Why it matters

If ad hoc payments become a permanent feature, farm income support could stay elevated and keep production incentives strong, a mildly bearish factor for grain and oilseed prices over the longer term.

## Read by commodity

- SOY: bearish ▼
- CORN: bearish ▼

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| CORN | 2025-07-03 | [Farm Bill in Reconciliation: ARC/PLC Payment Projections; Policy Design Lab Update - farmdoc daily](https://feedsoft.ai/events/23744-farm-bill-in-reconciliation-arc-plc-payment-projections-policy-design-lab.md) | -5.1% | -5.0% |
| CORN | 2024-09-27 | [Squeezing the Farmer, Part 1: Initiating Examination of a Persistent Challenge - farmdoc daily](https://feedsoft.ai/events/28290-squeezing-the-farmer-part-1-initiating-examination-of-a-persistent-challenge.md) | +2.2% | +1.0% |
| CORN | 2023-11-24 | [China to Encourage "More Reasonable Level" of Pig Production - Farm Policy News](https://feedsoft.ai/events/33167-china-to-encourage-more-reasonable-level-of-pig-production-farm-policy-news.md) | -1.8% | -0.4% |
| CORN | 2024-05-22 | [Analysis: Farm program payments would more than double for southern crops \| Agri-Pulse Communications, Inc.](https://feedsoft.ai/events/30239-analysis-farm-program-payments-would-more-than-double-for-southern-crops-agri.md) | +3.3% | +4.2% |
| CORN | 2025-08-22 | [The Reconciliation Farm Bill: Top Five Most Problematic Changes to Farm Policy, #3 - farmdoc daily](https://feedsoft.ai/events/23309-the-reconciliation-farm-bill-top-five-most-problematic-changes-to-farm-policy-3.md) | -0.6% | +7.6% |
| SOY | 2025-07-03 | [Farm Bill in Reconciliation: ARC/PLC Payment Projections; Policy Design Lab Update - farmdoc daily](https://feedsoft.ai/events/23744-farm-bill-in-reconciliation-arc-plc-payment-projections-policy-design-lab.md) | -3.6% | -8.4% |
| SOY | 2024-09-27 | [Squeezing the Farmer, Part 1: Initiating Examination of a Persistent Challenge - farmdoc daily](https://feedsoft.ai/events/28290-squeezing-the-farmer-part-1-initiating-examination-of-a-persistent-challenge.md) | +0.5% | -4.3% |
| SOY | 2025-01-23 | [Trump pick to lead USDA eyes payments to farmers to cover trade losses from tariffs](https://feedsoft.ai/events/26491-trump-pick-to-lead-usda-eyes-payments-to-farmers-to-cover-trade-losses-from.md) | +0.4% | -1.0% |

## Sources

- farmdocdaily.illinois.edu: https://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2020/07/ad-hoc-payments-a-leading-indicator-of-farm-policy-change.html

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.