# Skillful Very Long-Lead Forecasts Anticipate Potential Back-to-Back Below-Normal East African Rains, July Update – CHC Blog

> The UCSB Climate Hazards Center's July update uses North American Multimodel Ensemble forecasts to project a possible dry October-December 2020 and March-May 2021 rainy season in East Africa. The authors note substantial uncertainty and that Greater Horn of Africa already faces widespread food insecurity.

- Date: 2020-07-15 · published 2020-07-15T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: weather · region Global · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/52038-skillful-very-long-lead-forecasts-anticipate-potential-back-to-back-below
- Commodities: [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md), [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md)

## Why it matters

East African drought mainly affects local food security and regional import demand rather than global grain prices, so the price impact is limited.

## Read by commodity

- CORN: neutral
- WHEAT: neutral

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| CORN | 2023-07-27 | [Rainfall forecasts for US Corn Belt remain tough to nail down](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13261-rainfall-forecasts-for-us-corn-belt-remain-tough-to-nail-down.md) | -13.2% | -14.2% |
| CORN | 2025-12-12 | [La Niña Is Fading: What It Means for South American Crop Potential - AgWeb](https://feedsoft.ai/events/21412-la-nina-is-fading-what-it-means-for-south-american-crop-potential-agweb.md) | +1.0% | -2.9% |
| CORN | 2022-07-27 | [Soybeans rally as U.S. forecast turns hot, dry \| Financial Post](https://feedsoft.ai/events/8742-soybeans-rally-as-u-s-forecast-turns-hot-dry-financial-post.md) | +3.1% | +5.3% |
| CORN | 2026-02-19 | [Forecast from the São Paulo Department of Agriculture indicates a climate transition with the rainy season extending until the end of April. - DATAGRO](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13452-forecast-from-the-sao-paulo-department-of-agriculture-indicates-a-climate.md) | +0.6% | +7.4% |
| CORN | 2023-11-28 | [Global Seasonal Climate Update for July-August-September 2024](https://feedsoft.ai/events/33096-global-seasonal-climate-update-for-july-august-september-2024.md) | +2.2% | +4.6% |
| WHEAT | 2026-04-22 | [Chicago soy rises as oil prices climb, rain forecast threatens Midwest planting - Markets - Business Recorder](https://feedsoft.ai/events/19752-chicago-soy-rises-as-oil-prices-climb-rain-forecast-threatens-midwest-planting.md) | +1.2% | +2.3% |
| WHEAT | 2025-12-11 | [La Niña to fade early next year, neutral Pacific conditions likely, U.S. forecasters say - AgCanada](https://feedsoft.ai/events/21415-la-nina-to-fade-early-next-year-neutral-pacific-conditions-likely-u-s.md) | -0.3% | +0.8% |
| WHEAT | 2024-11-14 | [US forecaster sees 57% chance of La Nina developing between now and December \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/27326-us-forecaster-sees-57-chance-of-la-nina-developing-between-now-and-december.md) | -0.5% | +0.2% |

## Sources

- blog.chc.ucsb.edu: https://blog.chc.ucsb.edu/?p=774

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.