# IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society | July Climate Briefing: La Niña Watch Issued

> The IRI July climate briefing reports sea-surface temperatures in mid-July were slightly below average but in the neutral range. Its model runs give a 50-55% probability of weak La Niña for August-October through October-December, slightly below the official forecast.

- Date: 2020-07-21 · published 2020-07-21T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: weather · region Global · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/52035-iri-international-research-institute-for-climate-and-society-july-climate
- Commodities: [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md), [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md), [Palm Oil](https://feedsoft.ai/c/PALMOIL.md)

## Why it matters

Weak La Niña odds for late 2020 point to a higher risk of dryness in South America and wetter weather in Asia, a modest bullish factor for soy, corn and palm oil over the coming months.

## Read by commodity

- SOY: bullish ▲
- CORN: bullish ▲
- PALMOIL: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| SOY | 2020-08-20 | [IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society \| August Climate Briefing: La Niña Seeming More Likely](https://feedsoft.ai/events/51518-iri-international-research-institute-for-climate-and-society-august-climate.md) | +0.8% | +12.7% |
| SOY | 2017-12-27 | [IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society \| December Climate Briefing: New Year, Same La Niña](https://feedsoft.ai/events/67399-iri-international-research-institute-for-climate-and-society-december-climate.md) | +0.1% | +3.4% |
| SOY | 2020-10-23 | [IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society \| October Climate Briefing: La Niña Comes Knocking](https://feedsoft.ai/events/50562-iri-international-research-institute-for-climate-and-society-october-climate.md) | -2.0% | +9.7% |
| SOY | 2016-11-22 | [IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society \| November Climate Briefing: La Niña Arrives, Some Impacts Likely](https://feedsoft.ai/events/73773-iri-international-research-institute-for-climate-and-society-november-climate.md) | +2.2% | -1.5% |
| SOY | 2017-09-28 | [IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society \| September Climate Briefing: Surprise La Niña or Ephemeral Cooling?](https://feedsoft.ai/events/68869-iri-international-research-institute-for-climate-and-society-september-climate.md) | -0.8% | +1.0% |
| CORN | 2020-08-20 | [IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society \| August Climate Briefing: La Niña Seeming More Likely](https://feedsoft.ai/events/51518-iri-international-research-institute-for-climate-and-society-august-climate.md) | +2.7% | +10.2% |
| CORN | 2017-12-27 | [IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society \| December Climate Briefing: New Year, Same La Niña](https://feedsoft.ai/events/67399-iri-international-research-institute-for-climate-and-society-december-climate.md) | +0.4% | +1.3% |
| CORN | 2020-10-23 | [IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society \| October Climate Briefing: La Niña Comes Knocking](https://feedsoft.ai/events/50562-iri-international-research-institute-for-climate-and-society-october-climate.md) | +0.8% | +10.6% |

## Sources

- iri.columbia.edu: https://iri.columbia.edu/news/july-climate-briefing-la-nina-watch-issued/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.