# Global dairy surplus weighs on prices | Capital Press

> Rabobank analysts forecast that global exportable dairy surpluses will keep expanding into 2018, with milk supply growing 2.2% year over year in the third quarter of 2017. They projected US Class III milk falling about $3 to $13.99 per cwt in the first quarter, with Class IV at $12.34.

- Date: 2018-01-03 · published 2018-01-03T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: report · region Global · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/5202-global-dairy-surplus-weighs-on-prices-capital-press
- Commodities: [Milk (Class III)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/MILK.md)

## Why it matters

A growing exportable surplus weighs on world dairy prices and pressures farm margins, reducing the cost of dairy-based feed ingredients. Weaker milk prices are expected to persist through the second quarter of 2018.

## Read by commodity

- MILK: bearish ▼

## Linked price moves

| Commodity | Date | Window | Change % | z-score | Why linked |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| MILK | 2018-01-04 | 1 | -9.0% | -7.1 | Rabobank's forecast of expanding global dairy surpluses and Class III falling about $3 to $13.99 in Q1 is a bearish supply and sentiment driver that could prompt futures selling. |
| MILK | 2018-01-10 | 5 | -10.8% | -4.4 | Rabobank's forecast of expanding global surpluses and Class III falling about $3 sets a bearish supply-driven tone. |

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| MILK | 2025-12-26 | [Dairy production and herd growth forecasted for 2026 but prices to drop \| Capital Press](https://feedsoft.ai/events/21492-dairy-production-and-herd-growth-forecasted-for-2026-but-prices-to-drop-capital.md) | -4.4% | -6.7% |
| MILK | 2017-07-07 | [Global milk production modestly recovering \| Capital Press](https://feedsoft.ai/events/69992-global-milk-production-modestly-recovering-capital-press.md) | -0.8% | +4.5% |
| MILK | 2026-06-29 | [Record milk production keeps pressure on dairy prices](https://feedsoft.ai/events/18977-record-milk-production-keeps-pressure-on-dairy-prices.md) | -2.7% | -1.6% |
| MILK | 2023-04-12 | [High production, low demand likely to depress milk prices \| Capital Press](https://feedsoft.ai/events/36564-high-production-low-demand-likely-to-depress-milk-prices-capital-press.md) | +0.1% | -11.9% |
| MILK | 2018-11-02 | [Global food prices dip in October amid declines in dairy and sluggish palm oil demand](https://feedsoft.ai/events/6993-global-food-prices-dip-in-october-amid-declines-in-dairy-and-sluggish-palm-oil.md) | -3.0% | -2.8% |

## Sources

- capitalpress.com: https://capitalpress.com/2018/01/03/global-dairy-surplus-weighs-on-prices/

---
Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.