# Fertilizer markets soften but remain constrained by trade policies

> World Bank analysis says fertilizer prices eased in October-November 2025 after a surge in 2024Q3, with DAP falling 6 percent and TSP 3 percent in November while urea rose 4 percent. Prices remain about 17 percent above a year earlier, and the index is projected to rise more than 20 percent in 2025 before moderating. Trade restrictions, notably China's export constraints, remain key risks.

- Date: 2025-12-04 · published 2025-12-04T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: policy · region Global · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/5185-fertilizer-markets-soften-but-remain-constrained-by-trade-policies
- Commodities: [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md), [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md), [DAP](https://feedsoft.ai/c/DAP.md), [Urea](https://feedsoft.ai/c/UREA.md)

## Why it matters

Elevated fertilizer costs squeeze farm margins for fertilizer-intensive crops such as corn and wheat, which can reduce planted area and tighten feed grain supplies. Continued export constraints from China support upward pressure on phosphate and nitrogen prices.

## Read by commodity

- DAP: bullish ▲
- CORN: bullish ▲
- UREA: bullish ▲
- WHEAT: bullish ▲

## Linked price moves

| Commodity | Date | Window | Change % | z-score | Why linked |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| DAP | 2025-12-03 | 5 | -9.7% | -7.2 | World Bank noted DAP fell 6% in November, confirming the softening trend, though it was published after the window ended so it mostly reflects rather than drove the move. |

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| CORN | 2025-12-05 | [Fertilizer market November/December 2025 market report](https://feedsoft.ai/events/5186-fertilizer-market-november-december-2025-market-report.md) | -0.4% | -0.0% |
| CORN | 2024-06-07 | [Corn, soy futures rise on new Brazilian tax rule - Markets - Business Recorder](https://feedsoft.ai/events/6150-corn-soy-futures-rise-on-new-brazilian-tax-rule-markets-business-recorder.md) | +5.6% | -4.9% |
| CORN | 2020-12-31 | [CBOT corn higher - Markets - Business Recorder](https://feedsoft.ai/events/49676-cbot-corn-higher-markets-business-recorder.md) | +6.2% | +17.5% |
| CORN | 2022-03-01 | [House Ag Committee Begins Farm Bill Work With Eye on Fertilizer Prices, China Trade War Effects](https://feedsoft.ai/events/42255-house-ag-committee-begins-farm-bill-work-with-eye-on-fertilizer-prices-china.md) | +4.7% | +12.1% |
| CORN | 2025-12-27 | [Geopolitical shifts drive fertiliser market volatility – Ravensdown](https://feedsoft.ai/events/6498-geopolitical-shifts-drive-fertiliser-market-volatility-ravensdown.md) | -1.0% | -2.7% |
| WHEAT | 2022-01-27 | [Lower use of fertilizers could adversely affect wheat output: official - Markets - Business Recorder](https://feedsoft.ai/events/43444-lower-use-of-fertilizers-could-adversely-affect-wheat-output-official-markets.md) | -2.1% | +1.0% |
| WHEAT | 2018-03-13 | [Putin’s Policies Set To Deal A Soft Blow To Modi’s Farmer Outreach Efforts](https://feedsoft.ai/events/65963-putin-s-policies-set-to-deal-a-soft-blow-to-modi-s-farmer-outreach-efforts.md) | -1.6% | +0.5% |
| WHEAT | 2026-01-01 | [Politics to play a bigger role in agri markets as global tensions rise](https://feedsoft.ai/events/21120-politics-to-play-a-bigger-role-in-agri-markets-as-global-tensions-rise.md) | +0.7% | +3.4% |

## Sources

- blogs.worldbank.org: https://blogs.worldbank.org/en/opendata/fertilizer-markets-soften-but-remain-constrained-by-trade-polici

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.