# Taking it on the chin: Uncertainty drops markets | TheFencePost.com

> Cattle markets fell sharply during COVID-19 uncertainty, with LMIC economist Jim Robb citing a 6.7% rise in US beef production and heavier-than-expected weights and slaughter. He also flagged an oil price war between Russia and Saudi Arabia and a rising recession probability.

- Date: 2020-03-13 · published 2020-03-13T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: macro · region US · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/5170-taking-it-on-the-chin-uncertainty-drops-markets-thefencepost-com
- Commodities: [Live Cattle](https://feedsoft.ai/c/LCATTLE.md), [Feeder Cattle](https://feedsoft.ai/c/FCATTLE.md), [Crude Oil (WTI)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WTI.md)

## Why it matters

Heavier beef output and weaker demand expectations point to lower cattle prices and softer demand for feed inputs, while low oil prices add to macro uncertainty.

## Read by commodity

- WTI: bearish ▼
- FCATTLE: bearish ▼
- LCATTLE: bearish ▼

## Linked price moves

| Commodity | Date | Window | Change % | z-score | Why linked |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| LCATTLE | 2020-03-15 | 5 | -6.7% | -3.7 | Notes heavy beef production, oil price war and recession risk driving cattle markets lower on March 13. |
| FCATTLE | 2020-03-15 | 5 | -15.1% | -7.8 | Heavier beef production, oil price war and recession fears weighed on cattle demand expectations and sentiment during the selloff. |
| FCATTLE | 2020-03-12 | 1 | -4.9% | -3.5 | Cites COVID-19 uncertainty, heavy beef production and weights, the oil price war and recession odds as reasons for the sharp cattle market drop (supply and macro sentiment). |

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| LCATTLE | 2020-04-30 | [Estimating COVID-19 effects on the cattle markets - Progressive Cattle \| Ag Proud](https://feedsoft.ai/events/53773-estimating-covid-19-effects-on-the-cattle-markets-progressive-cattle-ag-proud.md) | +3.2% | +19.4% |
| LCATTLE | 2020-03-10 | [Coronavirus affecting cattle, other markets](https://feedsoft.ai/events/54074-coronavirus-affecting-cattle-other-markets.md) | -7.3% | -10.6% |
| LCATTLE | 2018-03-27 | [The big picture scares cattle markets](https://feedsoft.ai/events/66132-the-big-picture-scares-cattle-markets.md) | -3.4% | +0.8% |
| LCATTLE | 2020-02-26 | [Cattle Markets Experience Losses Amid Coronavirus Fears
						 \| The Cattle Site](https://feedsoft.ai/events/12060-cattle-markets-experience-losses-amid-coronavirus-fears-the-cattle-site.md) | -4.2% | -8.0% |
| LCATTLE | 2018-08-22 | [Cattle Market Overriding Themes \| Ohio BEEF Cattle Letter](https://feedsoft.ai/events/63656-cattle-market-overriding-themes-ohio-beef-cattle-letter.md) | -1.1% | +2.1% |
| FCATTLE | 2020-04-30 | [Estimating COVID-19 effects on the cattle markets - Progressive Cattle \| Ag Proud](https://feedsoft.ai/events/53773-estimating-covid-19-effects-on-the-cattle-markets-progressive-cattle-ag-proud.md) | +3.8% | +13.3% |
| FCATTLE | 2018-03-27 | [The big picture scares cattle markets](https://feedsoft.ai/events/66132-the-big-picture-scares-cattle-markets.md) | -3.3% | +3.1% |
| FCATTLE | 2020-02-26 | [Cattle Markets Experience Losses Amid Coronavirus Fears
						 \| The Cattle Site](https://feedsoft.ai/events/12060-cattle-markets-experience-losses-amid-coronavirus-fears-the-cattle-site.md) | +0.4% | -2.1% |

## Sources

- thefencepost.com: https://www.thefencepost.com/news/taking-it-on-the-chin-uncertainty-drops-markets/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.