# Russia’s wheat prices reverse, will Black Sea dryness help wheat bulls? - The Sizov Report blog

> Russian 12.5% wheat rose $8.50 week on week to $236.50/mt FOB but eased from the week's start as Chicago lost nearly 5%. Abnormally dry September conditions across the Black Sea, with many Russian and Ukrainian fields lacking topsoil moisture, persist as a bullish factor.

- Date: 2020-09-28 · published 2020-09-28T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: weather · region Black Sea · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/51157-russia-s-wheat-prices-reverse-will-black-sea-dryness-help-wheat-bulls-the-sizov
- Commodities: [Wheat (HRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/KWHEAT.md), [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md)

## Why it matters

Dryness during winter planting in the Black Sea raises concern for the 2021 crop, which could support wheat prices if rain fails to arrive, though competition from other origins caps gains.

## Read by commodity

- WHEAT: bullish ▲
- KWHEAT: bullish ▲

## Linked price moves

| Commodity | Date | Window | Change % | z-score | Why linked |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| KWHEAT | 2020-09-29 | 1 | +7.1% | 4.5 | Dryness across the Black Sea and Russian/Ukrainian fields lacking topsoil moisture is a supply-risk factor that supports a bullish rebound after Chicago's near 5% loss earlier in the week. |

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| KWHEAT | 2025-03-18 | [CBOT wheat prices rise amid moisture shortage in the Black Sea region](https://feedsoft.ai/events/5627-cbot-wheat-prices-rise-amid-moisture-shortage-in-the-black-sea-region.md) | -4.5% | -8.3% |
| KWHEAT | 2024-12-06 | [Dire Russian crop health and Ukraine export risks threaten Black Sea wheat \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/14243-dire-russian-crop-health-and-ukraine-export-risks-threaten-black-sea-wheat.md) | +1.9% | +3.2% |
| KWHEAT | 2020-09-22 | [Drought hampering Black Sea crop sowing sparks light in wheat prices
 \| The Land \| NSW](https://feedsoft.ai/events/51175-drought-hampering-black-sea-crop-sowing-sparks-light-in-wheat-prices-the-land.md) | -0.9% | +15.5% |
| KWHEAT | 2020-07-30 | [Russian Wheat Export Tax Boosts Grain Prices](https://feedsoft.ai/events/52024-russian-wheat-export-tax-boosts-grain-prices.md) | -4.3% | +1.0% |
| KWHEAT | 2020-04-04 | [Wheat Market Stabilizes, as the Black Sea Weather Remains Dry](https://feedsoft.ai/events/53686-wheat-market-stabilizes-as-the-black-sea-weather-remains-dry.md) | +4.7% | +2.5% |
| WHEAT | 2021-04-19 | [Black Sea wheat higher; Russia-Ukraine tensions remain on the agenda \| The Sizov Report blog](https://feedsoft.ai/events/47482-black-sea-wheat-higher-russia-ukraine-tensions-remain-on-the-agenda-the-sizov.md) | +4.9% | +6.1% |
| WHEAT | 2024-04-19 | [Wheat Prices Rise On Russia Dryness](https://feedsoft.ai/events/30701-wheat-prices-rise-on-russia-dryness.md) | +0.8% | +2.3% |
| WHEAT | 2025-03-18 | [CBOT wheat prices rise amid moisture shortage in the Black Sea region](https://feedsoft.ai/events/5627-cbot-wheat-prices-rise-amid-moisture-shortage-in-the-black-sea-region.md) | -1.0% | -2.0% |

## Sources

- blog.sizov.report: https://blog.sizov.report/russias-wheat-prices-reverse-will-black-sea-dryness-help-wheat-bulls/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.