# Urea, DAP prices surge amid Gulf tensions and supply concerns - The HinduBusinessLine

> DAP and urea prices are surging as crude oil and LNG prices rise amid Gulf tensions. Experts expect DAP to reach at least $1,000 per tonne FOB from about $850 last week, with urea possibly exceeding $1,000 CFR. India's upcoming sowing season is adding demand pressure.

- Date: 2026-03-04 · published 2026-03-04T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: geopolitics · region Global · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/5102-urea-dap-prices-surge-amid-gulf-tensions-and-supply-concerns-the
- Commodities: [Crude Oil (WTI)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WTI.md), [Crude Oil (Brent)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/BRENT.md), [Natural Gas](https://feedsoft.ai/c/NATGAS.md), [Urea](https://feedsoft.ai/c/UREA.md), [DAP](https://feedsoft.ai/c/DAP.md)

## Why it matters

Higher energy and LNG costs raise nitrogen and phosphate production costs and Gulf supply risk lifts fertilizer prices, squeezing farm margins and feed grain production economics.

## Read by commodity

- DAP: bullish ▲
- WTI: bullish ▲
- UREA: bullish ▲
- BRENT: bullish ▲
- NATGAS: bullish ▲

## Linked price moves

| Commodity | Date | Window | Change % | z-score | Why linked |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| DAP | 2026-03-02 | 1 | +2.9% | 7.4 | Gulf tensions raising crude, LNG and input costs plus Indian pre-sowing demand support DAP strength, though dated two days after the move so it is more confirmation of the trend than a direct driver. |

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| WTI | 2020-01-06 | [West Asia tensions send yen to three-month peak - The HinduBusinessLine](https://feedsoft.ai/events/55324-west-asia-tensions-send-yen-to-three-month-peak-the-hindubusinessline.md) | -6.3% | -20.5% |
| WTI | 2024-10-02 | [Urea prices in the US experience price rally amid Middle East confrontations](https://feedsoft.ai/events/5243-urea-prices-in-the-us-experience-price-rally-amid-middle-east-confrontations.md) | +5.4% | -4.0% |
| WTI | 2018-06-28 | [U.S. oil prices hit three-and-a-half-year high on concern over Iran sanctions](https://feedsoft.ai/events/8780-u-s-oil-prices-hit-three-and-a-half-year-high-on-concern-over-iran-sanctions.md) | -3.7% | -6.5% |
| WTI | 2026-08-25 | [Crude oil price traded higher on Tuesday morning. - The HinduBusinessLine](https://feedsoft.ai/events/18009-crude-oil-price-traded-higher-on-tuesday-morning-the-hindubusinessline.md) | +0.8% | +12.4% |
| WTI | 2026-03-02 | [Oil Prices Surge as Hormuz Disruptions Threaten Global Supply, Analysts Warn - Bloomberg](https://feedsoft.ai/events/8003-oil-prices-surge-as-hormuz-disruptions-threaten-global-supply-analysts-warn.md) | +35.6% | +50.4% |
| BRENT | 2020-01-06 | [West Asia tensions send yen to three-month peak - The HinduBusinessLine](https://feedsoft.ai/events/55324-west-asia-tensions-send-yen-to-three-month-peak-the-hindubusinessline.md) | -4.3% | -15.8% |
| BRENT | 2020-01-20 | [Rupee slips 4 paise to 71.12 against US dollar amid rising crude prices  - The HinduBusinessLine](https://feedsoft.ai/events/55371-rupee-slips-4-paise-to-71-12-against-us-dollar-amid-rising-crude-prices-the.md) | -6.9% | -11.0% |
| BRENT | 2023-12-27 | [Diesel Prices Rebound After 8-Week Decline on Supply Concerns](https://feedsoft.ai/events/32880-diesel-prices-rebound-after-8-week-decline-on-supply-concerns.md) | -3.6% | +0.5% |

## Sources

- thehindubusinessline.com: https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/economy/agri-business/west-asia-tensions-raise-fears-of-1000-per-tonne-urea-price/article70703305.ece

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.